Tuesday: East-facing slopes were favored in last night’s flurry of activity due to the north-to-south track of the arctic cold front. Cams at 8AM had snow falling at all resorts from Castle in the south to Marmot up north. Expect these flurries to wane through the late morning/early afternoon hours from north to south down the Rockies with another 3 – 5cm likely across the Alberta Rockies. Mainly cloudy skies and continued cold, with morning lows hovering around -20C and highs generally around -15C (at 2200m). Variable west winds with gusts to 40 kph along the ridgetops will make things quite blustery in the alpine. 

Wednesday: A dirty high-pressure ridge builds in across the Alberta Rockies with generally cloudy skies with isolated flurries. A slight warming trend with low temps of -12C south, -16C north, with highs of -8C south, and -11C north. Moderate W/SW winds, gusting to 30kph along the ridgetops closest to the Divide. 

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds in the morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon with flurries developing around Jasper NP in advance of our next low-pressure system moving into the Alberta Rockies from NE BC. Lows around -15C with warmer daytime highs of -8C at 2200m. West winds will be on the increase overnight Thursday.

Friday:  As the low-pressure system moves north to south Thursday night into Friday morning numerous flurries will develop across the eastern slopes of the Rockies. Trace amounts up to 3cm are possible for most resorts with 3 – 5cm possible for the South Rockies’ Castle Mountain and Pass Powderkeg. Colder with morning lows around -20C and afternoon highs hovering around -12C. Light E/NE winds. 

Saturday: Mainly cloudy skies with numerous flurries likely with trace amounts. This forecast could change as the Euro model is favoring a stormier scenario. Continued cold across the Rockies with upper mountain (at 2200m) morning lows around -20C with afternoon highs around -13C. Slightly warmer in the South Rockies. Light and variable SW winds. 

Below: Canadian Model animation for snowfall over BC and Alberta the period Tuesday - Friday shows snow spilling over the Divide on Tuesday and again on Thursday - Friday.

 

With the latest model runs differentiating quite significantly, I currently have low confidence in Saturday and Sunday’s forecasts. The American GFS and Canadian GEM both favor a storm system to ride west of the Continental Divide but the Euro (overall a better track record than the other two) favors a more robust system moving over the Continental Divide bringing a moderate winter storm into the Alberta Rockies. I’ll be tracking this throughout the week and will have the latest on my next update on Thursday. 
Models do come together for another arctic high-pressure ridge to push in for the early to middle part of next week bringing a generally benign pattern along with continued below-average temperatures.  

Below: Canadian model keeps most of the snowfall on the BC side of the border.

 

Below: The Euro model is the best scenario. Both models bring high-pressure (dry) for the bulk of next week.

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Thanks for tuning in, next update will be on Thursday 11/27.  

Powder Out, 

Bob 

Alberta Rockies Ski Resorts & Areas / North & South “Regions” are solely for Geographic References in my forecasts…

 North Region:  ( * denotes SkiBig3 resorts )

*Banff/Sunshine Village  OPEN daily

*Lake Louise Ski Resort  OPEN daily  

*Mt Norquay  OPEN daily  

Marmot Basin        OPEN daily

 South Region:

Castle Mountain   OPEN Daily  

Fortress / KPOW Cat Skiing  TBA

Nakiska  OPEN daily

Pass Powderkeg  OPEN WEEKENDS  

 

 

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