Chase Powder Daily Snow

Aloha From Hawaii

Summary

I can barely run the models from Hana HI but will try and give you a quick update.

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Update

You may ask "Why would I spend time looking or posting weather when on vacation in Maui". The true answer is that if I were going to miss a deep powder day, I would be on the next flight home. Alaska might be the deepest option if you are there, or willing to take the steps to fly out for late this weekend and early next week. 

Otherwise, with very limited data (I can only run a fraction of the models that I normally look at), it appears the next storms for the Rockies simply teases Wyoming and Colorado for Saturday morning favoring northern Colorado (I-70 and north). Its possible that Colorado outperforms with good wind direction (NW) helping out Steamboat, Vail, and Aspen (Less snow fall east or south) for Saturday morning. Moisture is limited however if you get lucky with some of the ingredients coming together you might be riding 2-5 inches by noon Saturday. If I were chasing, I might locate somewhere in Summit County and pay attention to the webcams at Steamboat, Aspen, and Vail.  Resorts further south towards Telluride will see less snowfall. Plan to ride Saturday morning. This is not an impressive system, lacks moisture, but nevertheless hopefully outperforms the models. 

The next event for Sunday night into Monday pushes down from Montana bringing a decent burst of 5-10 inches for Showdown, Glacier National Park, and areas favored in NW flow. Bridger might edge out a surprise and I would not rule out Big Sky either (*Wildcard). The heaviest snow will be in north central Montana (Showdown Ski Area) followed by Bridger Bowl outside of Bozeman (Good wind direction). 

Wyoming grabs a light to moderate storm for the Tetons (Might favor Targhee over JHMR) with 3-6 inches for Monday morning. Its a fast mover, but could really soften things up in the Tetons. Timing is good with overnight powder. 

For Colorado the models I can see bring a shortwave into the Northern Mountains (I-70 and north) with a good burst of snow Monday morning (Storm Ski). Currently the amounts seem to be in the 3-6 inch range. The low pressure system responsible for the late weekend storm drops well south into California and pushes east. Southern storms pose challenges for forecasters as models have not been in synch on exactly who will see the highest amounts. Winds shift due easterly with this storm Monday/Tuesday which leads me to a low confidence forecast for deep snow in the San Juan Range. The highest amounts may end up in New Mexico on the Colorado border. I'm really not sure at this point. 

Bottom Line: The north central mountains of Montana see the highest amounts with the Sunday/Monday storm. If you are able to get to Alaska, they are going to score deep snow Sunday/Monday.  Wyoming gets a refresh for Sunday night (Monday morning pow), while Colorado grabs early morning Monday pow with some storm skiing likely up north. The main low pushes well south of the area into California next week pushing moisture up into the 4 corners. Wind direction poses challenges in any confidence for a deep forecast currently with the San Juan Range. The highest amounts might land on the eastern flanks of the Santa De Cristo Range, as well as southern Colorado near the Front Range areas east of Pueblo. Perhaps Monarch wins, but they normally like West or NW winds even though they sit on the top of the Divide. Wildcards here. 

I will try and post again on Saturday afternoon. 

Powderchaser Steve 

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