Utah

As of late Sunday, the short-term high-resolution models that are often the most accurate looking out in a short-range period (Hours versus days) have increased water totals for the Wasatch Sunday night into Monday. The deterministic longer-range models have lower amounts. If the short-term models prove correct it's possible the Cottonwood Canyons nab 11-18 inches by midday Monday (Split from midnight Sunday to midday Monday). Snow density will be medium dense at the base but could be really decent from mid to upper elevations (Snow level around 6K). The PCMR and DV mountains sitting a bit lower will likely nab 5-10 while areas near Snowbasin or Powder Mountain in a similar range or a tad higher. Sundance with South or SW flow will likely score even higher totals at the upper elevations. Southern Utah will score very high snow totals this week, especially at Brian Head. Caveat: The longer-range deterministic runs of the Euro and GFS show less snow for the Wasatch Sunday night, so it's possible that we end up with lower totals. NWS has higher totals than my forecast. It's a mix of overnight and daytime snow. I think 11-18 is a decent compromise by late Monday. LCC is closing Sunday around midnight.  A second wave hits the Wasatch Tuesday evening or early Wednesday with a better shot of double digits and slightly colder temps (Better quality). Snow showers continue into Thursday under unstable NW flow. Weekly totals could be in the 24-35 inch range with the southern mountains seeing even higher totals. UPDATE 6 AM MONDAY: The Deterministic GFS and Euro outperformed the Short Term NAM and HRR and amounts in the Cottonwoods only range from 3-5 inches. Snow will continue on Monday likely increasing in intensity in the late AM or early PM period. Its likely that the lower end of my forecast is still obtainable (11).  

Below: Total snowfall through Wednesday night with 2 systems will be plentiful for many areas, especially with the midweek storm (Late Tuesday to Thursday). Temps are lowering in Utah and Wyoming while rising in areas of Colorado before dropping late Wednesday. Note: Taos and Arizona Snowbowl have very high base elevations so even with warmer temps can sometimes do well quality-wise. 

Cali 

In the Sierra, snow is underway currently with temps on the warm side (28 degrees at 8700 feet). Snow will continue into Monday morning with a cooling trend (Right side up snow) and generally 7-11 inches for most resorts in the Tahoe Basin and perhaps a bit more for Mammoth. Quality will be decent with the cooling trend but only 25% falls with the colder temps. Another storm which is colder hits the Sierra by Tuesday/Wednesday and could deliver double digits driving snow levels to below lake level (The 2nd storm is the better of the 2 this week). Chase Monday or Wednesday (colder). 

Below: Total snowfall for the Sierra through Wednesday really favoring resorts south of Lake Tahoe especially with storm #2 Tuesday/Wednesday. The deepest amounts may end up south of Mono County (Big Bear, Baldy) Ride Monday morning and Wednesday Monday morning (2 storms with the midweek cooler). 

Wyoming 

The Tetons are just north of the highest moisture tap with light or moderate snow on the models from Monday to Wednesday. On Wednesday night snowfall increases so Thursday stands the chance of bigger numbers, but it's still not a blockbuster. The overall weekly totals could be decent (6-12). Temps in the Tetons are a tad colder than in Utah and much colder than in Colorado which would still provide some good turning conditions, especially Thursday morning. 

San Juan range (UT, AZ, CO, NM). 

The deepest snow will be found in Southern Utah and most of the San Juan Range, especially in Colorado. The 2 main periods of snow will be Monday (Storm ski moderate totals) into Tuesday morning (Last chair Monday or the first chair Tuesday). Wolf Creek, Purgatory, Silverton, and perhaps Crested Butte stand the best odds of double digits from Monday to Tuesday. There is colder air in place for the San Juan Range with warmer temps noted over the central or northern mountains. 12-16 inches is possible for the southern areas of Utah and Colorado with storm #1.  Read on for storm #2 which is deeper but perhaps warmer. 

Storm 2 arrives in the San Juan Range late Tuesday night or Wednesday and delivers higher moisture totals but unfortunately with a warm front. Temps will top out at 10K feet at 26-27 degrees Wednesday morning. It may even rain below 8,000 feet. Moisture midweek will funnel further north providing possible wet and deep totals for all of southern Colorado, northern Arizona, Southern Utah,  and Crested Butte, and may even extend to Snowmass or Aspen (Moderate amounts).  Steamboat is also a good contender as moisture funnels due north on the western I-70 corridor (Sunlight, Powderhorn, etc.). The I-70 corridor from Glenwood to Summit County may also get into action Wednesday but with lower totals. Temps crash late Wednesday night to Thursday providing some possible high-quality coating to the wet snow. Taos will begin to reap rewards from Wednesday to Thursday(double digits likely). Precipitation tends to decrease with the passage of colder air late Wednesday night but there is still hope for better-density snow for Thursday turns.  

Bottom Line: San Juan range looks VERY deep with 2 storms. 3-4 foot totals are very likely, maybe more. The models are going nuts right now. There may be very little of a break from storm 1 to storm 2. Temps start out cold for Monday/Tuesday pow and warm by Wednesday. Colder air on the backside will slam Colorado Thursday (perhaps a deep freeze of some wet snow). 

Below: Colder air arrives in Colorado late Wednesday night primarily west of the Divide. 

Below: Very cold temps noted with an arctic front due late Friday for the PNW dropping 10K temps to -17 C. At 4800 feet (just above the bases or mid-mountain that equates to 19F). Is it really Spring? 

The first day of Spring is March 20th (Monday). Well, who would know it, especially by the end of this week a very cold airmass slams the PNW and Canada with snow levels dropping to 1,000 feet. There might be some high-quality spring powder for the Cascade ranges of Oregon and Washington extending into western Canada. From the PNW it's too far out to speculate who benefits, but likely it's going to be a Northern Rockies and Idaho event. Bundle up, everyone! 

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See you on the first Chair Monday. 

Powderchaser Steve