The latest storm brought snow on Monday and Monday night with 10-25 inches in the southern mountains, 12 inches at Steamboat and Snowmass, and about 2-6 inches for other central and northern mountains.

That was a fun storm, and as is typical of a good storm cycle, there will only be a short break before the next storm arrives.

The next storm on Wednesday night and Thursday will actually be the combination of two systems. One system is cut-off from the main flow and is over Southern California, and a stronger and faster-moving system will move in from the northwest.

On to the forecast details...

Wednesday will bring snow showers to the central and northern mountains. We have just enough moisture and lingering storm energy to create some snow. I am only expecting a coating to a few inches at the most, so Wednesday will not be a powder day, but any flakes will help keep the snow surface soft in advance of our next storm, and this is a good thing.

Wednesday night through Thursday night is when we’ll see the main event. On Wednesday night, snow will fall heavily (5-10 inches) around Steamboat in the north and also around Wolf Creek in the south. All other mountains should also see snow, around 3-6 inches. Then during the day on Thursday, snow will continue with an additional 3-6 inches for most mountains. I don’t have time in the Colorado Daily Snow to talk about how each mountain will or will not be favored by the changing wind directions on Wednesday night and Thursday, but you can view the forecast for each individual mountain on OpenSnow (or all of them here: http://opensnow.com/state/co), and the forecast that you see takes into account lots of models and I also make adjustments based on the wind direction and if it's favorable or not favorable for each mountain.

The punchline for this system is that Thursday will be a powder day for nearly every mountain, with fresh snow at first chair and additional snow through the day. Most mountains will finish the day in the 6-12 inch range, and Steamboat gets the nod for possibly getting the most snow based on a few high-resolution models and also the idea that a wind from the west and cooling temperatures is a very good setup for them.

We might see lingering snow showers after lifts close on Thursday afternoon, and this could mean that the central and northern mountains will have a few inches of fresh snow on top of leftover powder on Friday morning.

Below is the CAIC 4km WRF forecast for snow through Friday morning.

After this week’s storm, we will see dry weather on Friday, then a weak storm could graze the northern mountains on Friday night with perhaps a dusting to a few inches of snow from I-70 north to Steamboat and Cameron Pass.

It looks like Saturday and Sunday will be dry, then the next storm will approach on Sunday night and could bring snow through Tuesday.

For days, the European model has insisted that this storm would hit all of Colorado while the American GFS model has kept the storm further north, only grazing northern Colorado. Now, the American GFS model is trending south with the storm, and another often-accurate model, the British UKMet, also shows the storm further south and hitting all of Colorado.

This is all good news and points toward the likelihood that most of Colorado will see snow from Sunday night through Tuesday, with the most snow potentially falling in the southern part of the southern mountains (Wolf Creek, Purgatory, Silverton, maybe Telluride) with the best chance for intense snow at all mountains on Monday night and Tuesday.

This storm is still 5-7 days away, so a lot will change in the forecast, but I like the general idea of keeping your eye out for powder days early next week.

What happens after that? The western US will likely stay stormy, but I don’t know exactly when we’ll see the next storm in Colorado. Stay tuned…

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

* I will be giving a talk in Crested Butte on Friday, February 16th from 600-800pm at the Crested Butte Town Hall. This will be an educational talk about weather forecasting in Colorado, with about 1 hour of general information, a short break, and then another hour of more technical discussion for you weather nerds out there. The price is a $15 donation to the Crested Butte Avalanche Center, and that gets you into the event and also gets you free beer! Hope to see you there!

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains