Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 6 years ago March 14, 2018
Powder likely on Friday and Sunday
Summary
Wednesday will be warm and dry, then we’ll see the first batch of snow on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, leading to likely powder on Friday morning. Following dry weather on Friday and Saturday, the second batch of snow will hit on Saturday night and Sunday with likely powder on Sunday and perhaps lingering to first chair on Monday morning. After that, the next storm, or series of storms, could hit later next week and the following weekend (March 21-27, ish).
Short Term Forecast
Wednesday will be dry, partly-to-mostly cloudy, and warm with high temperatures rising into the 40s.
A piece of the storm system over the west coast will finally break away and push east, and this will bring snow to Colorado with showers starting on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. These showers should be scattered and light, so I expect zero to very light accumulations before midday Thursday. Also, the temperature on Thursday will be warm with snow levels possibly near the base of many mountains, so any light showers that do fall could be in the form of raindrops on the lower part of most mountains.
On Thursday afternoon and evening, a band of intense snow should move across Colorado. These showers will be similar to afternoon thunderstorms in the summer in that they will not hit each mountain with the same intensity. Some areas could get lucky and see a quick 2-5 inches in an hour or two, and other areas might only see a quick dusting to an each. These showers should start later in the day, and I think the majority of the snow will fall after lifts close on Thursday afternoon. However, if the showers start earlier, than the final run or two on Thursday could offer powder, especially for the mountains that are furthermost west (Powderhorn, Telluride, Silverton).
On Thursday night, following the passage of the intense line of showers, we’ll see a colder flow from the west and west-northwest, and this should keep snow showers going through about sunrise on Friday morning.
Total snowfall from Thursday late afternoon through Friday morning should average in the 3-6 inch range, and the snow quality should be in the order that what we want, with thicker, dense snow to start (due to the warm and windy conditions) followed by fluffier, colder snow on Thursday night. This likely means that Friday morning will ski well with the thicker snow providing some cushion over the hard base, and then a little bit of lighter, fluffier snow on top. The average amount of snow (3-6 inches) likely will not be enough to soften the base on anything other than low-angle, north-facing slopes, though if any mountain gets lucky and sees closer to double-digit amounts, that could soften more of the terrain.
Below is a loop showing the forecast radar from Thursday morning through Friday morning. The time at the top is given in GMT / Zulu, so subtract 6 hours to bring the time back to Mountain Daylight Time (eg. Thursday 21z - 6 hours = Thursday 3 pm MDT). If you cannot see the animated loop below, click here: http://opsw.co/2FA7UO9
Following the likely powder for first chair on Friday morning, most of Friday and Saturday will be dry.
Then the next batch of snow should move through Colorado on Saturday night and Sunday. Like the Thursday night batch of snow, I think the average snowfall on Saturday night and Sunday will be in the 3-6 inch range. There is still plenty of uncertainty about how exactly this batch of energy will track, which leads to vastly different forecast details. The images below show the snow forecast from Saturday night through Sunday night from different runs of the same model, made just 12 hours apart.
Pulling this all together, if you want to ski powder, the best chance should be on Friday morning and again during the day on Sunday. It’s possible that, if Sunday’s batch of snow moves a bit more slowly, we could see powder for first chair on Monday morning as well, so keep that on your radar.
Extended Forecast
Early next week should be dry (unless the Sunday storm slows down).
The next period of storminess should start sometime during the middle or end of next week and could last through the following weekend. It will not snow all of the time between the middle of next week and the last few days of March, but with the models showing general storminess in the west (in the map below, see the black lines that dip to the south), we should see at least one or two batches of snow between about March 21-27, ish.
Thanks for reading!
JOEL GRATZ
Announcements
Survey – I would be super appreciative if you take a few minutes to fill out this survey. It will help us to get a better idea of who is using OpenSnow and what we can improve to help you chase powder for years to come! http://opsw.co/2018survey
Geography Key
Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains