Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago October 17, 2018
Showers over the southwest
Summary
A weak storm is spinning near the four corners on Wednesday and this will bring showers to the southern mountains on Wednesday and Thursday. Accumulations will be scattered and could total another 3-6 inches. For the rest of the state, we might see showers on Thursday night and again early next week, but the next chance for significant snow will likely be more than one week out, after October 25.
Short Term Forecast
Here is one more picture from the recent storm to get us excited for the season ahead.
The big piece of news from the past 24 hours is that Arapahoe Basin announced that their opening day would be on Friday, October 19 and Loveland will open the next day on Saturday, October 20. Both Arapahoe Basin and Loveland will be open 7-days per week after their opening day. Wolf Creek is still planning to be open on weekends only for the next few weeks.
To the weather…
On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, snow showers began over the southern mountains. Snow stake cameras at Purgatory and Telluride show about one inch of snow so far, and that’s likely true at Silverton as well (they don’t have mountain cam).
The showers are coming from a storm that is spinning near the four corners (meeting point of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico). The animation below shows the water vapor in the mid and upper atmosphere, and it allows us to clearly see the storm’s spin.
Zooming into western Colorado, the radar shows showers moving from southeast-to-northwest over the southwestern part of the state and hitting Telluride, Silverton, and Purgatory. These towns are all mostly due south of Montrose, which is marked on the map.
From Wednesday morning through Thursday night the southwestern storm should bring scattered showers and drop an additional 3-6 inches over the southern mountains. Other mountains will see the best chance for showers and perhaps 1-2 inches of snow on Thursday night as the storm weakens and moves east across the state.
From Friday to Sunday it looks like the entire state will return to sunny and dry weather.
Sunday night through early next week will bring another weak storm spinning over the four corners, so we might see showers during this time as well, though snow amounts look light.
Extended Forecast
The next chance for a more significant storm and significant snow should arrive after next Thursday, October 25th.
Here’s the interesting thing about the forecast for the final few days of October and early November.
During this late October period in past years with a developing El Nino (like this year), we have seen significant storms in Colorado.
Some longer-range models (which go out to 15+ days) show just a weak system hitting Colorado sometime between October 25-31.
Other longer-range models are now hinting that a storm will slow down and bring more significant precipitation.
From a modeling standpoint, it’s too early to have confidence in any one scenario.
From a historical standpoint, the days around the end of October and early November bear watching.
Thanks for reading … next update on Thursday, October 18.
JOEL GRATZ
Announcements
My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!
* October 18 in Colorado Springs at Ute & Yeti starting at 630pm. Beer & food available for purchase. Free to attend! Details here.
* October 25 in Golden at Powder7 ski shop starting at 630pm. Free to attend! Details here.
* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. Free to attend! There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Details here.
* Early November in Summit County
* November 28 in Vail
* December 5 in Denver
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Geography Key
Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains
About Our Forecaster
Joel Gratz
Founding Meteorologist
Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.
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