From Tuesday night through Thursday morning of this week, a slow-moving storm hung over the southwestern US. This storm pushed moisture and weak energy over southwestern Colorado which resulted in 3-5 inches of snow around Purgatory, Telluride, and Silverton.

On Thursday night (last night), this storm finally got a move on and pushed from the southwestern US, across Colorado, and into the central US.

As the storm moved across Colorado on Thursday night, most models showed a few showers developing with a couple inches of snow possible.

Below are the actual snow measurements from Thursday night based on snow stake cams and automated sensors.

Snowmass - 8”
Aspen Mountain - 5”
Aspen Highlands - 4”
Beaver Creek - 4”
Loveland - 4”
Copper - 3”
Vail - 3”
Arapahoe Basin - 2”
Buttermilk - 2”
Ski Cooper - 2”
Winter Park - 2”

Most mountains did get just a few inches of snow, though the Aspen area surprised on the high side with 4-8 inches.

The reason for the high-side surprise was that we had plenty of moisture that this storm pulled from the south into Colorado (moisture is the fuel for snow) PLUS we had some convection (warmer air rising) which, like summer thunderstorms, can create bursts of precipitation in a small area with other areas receiving much less.

In fact, the 8 inches at Snowmass fell in just about three hours – talk about a short, intense burst of precipitation, much like what we experience with summertime convection and thunderstorms.

At my talk in Colorado Springs on Thursday night, a gentleman in the audience asked a question about what factors lead to a busted (incorrect) forecast. I replied that one of the factors is convection which creates localized areas of intense precipitation that we just can’t model accurately to know exactly where they will occur. This is what happened over Snowmass on Thursday night.

Moving on, now on Friday morning we are seeing fresh snow on the mountains with lingering low clouds throughout most of western Colorado’s mountains.

This cam from the summit of Beaver Creek shows the situation perfectly with new snow on the slopes and clouds in the valley east of Beaver Creek with the trails of Vail just poking out of the clouds in the middle-right of the image.

Compare the snow depth today versus this day last year and we see a much-improved situation. Well, it’s easy to improve because last year on this date we had heli-skiing no snow on the ground!

Snow depth today (October 19, 2018):

Snow depth last year (October 19, 2017):

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday should be dry across Colorado. Enjoy the opening day at Arapahoe Basin on Friday, at Loveland on Saturday, and Wolf Creek is open on weekends only for now, including this weekend. The sunniest days will be Friday and Saturday with more clouds on Sunday.

The next storm will bring snow on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. This next system will be much like this week’s system. At first, the southern mountains should get a few inches of snow, then the slow-moving storm will cross Colorado during the middle of the week and that could bring a few inches of snow (and perhaps more due to adequate moisture + convection?) to other mountains.

We should have a break in the action on Thursday.

The next storm will move quickly sometime next Friday and Saturday with the best chance of snow in the northern mountains.

After that, we could see another system around Tuesday or Wednesday (October 30-31).

Most models show storminess around Colorado into early November with a storm track either from the northwest and/or perhaps a storm stalling over the southwest. I have low confidence in the longer-range forecast, but there should be enough action around that we’ll have chances for snow every few days.

Thanks for reading … next update on Saturday, October 20.

JOEL GRATZ

Cool things you might like!

* New! Get to see heli-skiing in virtual reality using an Oculus headset. I tried it last week and it was actually super cool to feel like you were in a helicopter and skiing with friends on big slopes, and it was the first time that doing something in virtual reality felt like a real value and not just a gimmick. Headsets will be available (as well as complimentary food & drink) at the CMH Heli-ski event in Denver on Wednesday, October 24th. RSVP here.

* New! A contest where the winner (and 19 friends) get a mountain to themselves for a day. Enter here.

 

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

We had a fantastic time in Colorado Springs last night (October 18)! More talks below…

* October 25 in Golden at Powder7 Ski Shop starting at 630pm. Free to attend! Details here.

* New! October 30 in Nederland at Salto Coffee Works starting at 630pm. Beer and food available for purchase. Free to attend!

* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. Free to attend! There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Details here.

* November 9 in Breckenridge/Frisco area. Details soon.

* November 28 in Vail.

* December 5 in Denver

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains