A reader sent in this photo of Breckenridge on Monday. Breck and most other mountains are about to look much snowier following the storm on Tuesday and Tuesday night!

It’s storm day Tuesday. We’ve had an eye on this system for over one week and it’s finally here. The only big update is a good one – all models have increased the snow forecast on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The early-morning radar across the state shows snow just beginning as a stripe across the northern mountains. Cams confirms that light snow is beginning to fall (now = 700am).

Zooming in to western Colorado, the precipitation is just getting into the northern and western mountains.

On Monday, I showed the forecast radar for this storm, which depicted two waves of precipitation. Wave #1 would move through Tuesday morning and Wave #2 would move through on Tuesday afternoon and evening.

This morning’s update now shows Wave #2 as being stronger and a bit further north. This is good news as it means that most mountains will see more snow.

The animation below starts at Tuesday 600am and ends on Thursday at 12-noon. Spoiler alert – watch until the end and you’ll see more snow coming on Thursday. We’ll get to that!

The high-resolution WRF model from the Colorado Avalanche Information Center (CAIC) gives a snow forecast total from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning that is in line with most other models.

Areas west of the divide should be in the 4-8 inch range and areas near and east of the divide should be in the 8-15 inch range (orange and red colors).

Also, notice the sharp cut off from no snow to lots of snow on the west side of the storm. This area is ripe for a bust in the forecast – if Wave #2 is a few miles further south = less snow, and if Wave #2 is few miles further north, more snow.

The ever important wind direction will be from the north and northeast during Wave #2 (Tuesday late afternoon and evening) which is why mountains near and east of the divide will get the most snow. There should be enough energy in the storm for mountains west of the divide to get good snow during this time even with a less-than-ideal wind direction, though this is another issue I'm watching because a less-than-ideal wind direction is important.

The mountains furthest north, around Steamboat, will just miss out on most of the snow, but the next few storms will bring the most snow to this area and the northern mountains in general, so things will even out!

Most snow should end late Tuesday night or by Wednesday sunrise with flakes lingering over the southeast.

If you want to ski powder, you might find some at Arapahoe Basin and Loveland on Wednesday morning (I say "some" because grooming might turn most of the fresh snow into corduroy).

If you're heading into the backcountry, remember that avalanches happen even during the early season and there have already been a few reported during October.

It’s not over

In fact, this storm on Tuesday is just the beginning of an active pattern!

Following dry weather on Wednesday, we’ll see chances for snow on Thursday, Saturday, a stronger and colder system next Monday, November 5, and then likely another storm between Friday-Sunday, November 10-12.

Most of these upcoming storms will focus on the northern and central mountains, though the southern mountains can’t be ruled out during the stronger systems.

The snow forecast for the next two weeks shows that Colorado will be in the vicinity of the storm track with the potential for 2+ feet of accumulation in some spots.

Thanks for reading! Next update on Wednesday, October 31.

JOEL GRATZ

My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow!

*Tonight! October 30 in Nederland at Salto Coffee Works starting at 630pm. Beer and food available for purchase. Free to attend! Details & schedule here.

* November 1 in Boulder at Neptune Mountaineering starting at 600pm. There will be happy hour, my talk, the short film “Abandoned” about lost ski areas, and a raffle with REALLY good prizes. Tickets to the event are $10 and include two raffle entries and proceeds go to Friends of CAIC! (SOLD OUT)

* New! November 8 in Evergreen at Boone Mountain Sports / Evergreen Brewery. Beer and food available for purchase, and my talk starts at 700pm. Details here.

* November 9 in Breckenridge at the Breckenridge Backstage Theater. Party, my talk, and a movie. Time from 500-830pm. Link soon.

* November 28 in Vail.

* December 5 in Denver

 

Podcasts!

* Wagner Skis launched a podcast with guests like pro skiers Angel Collinson, Tommy Moe, and Chris Davenport, hosted by veteran ski journalist Jason Blevins. Subscribe and/or download the episodes.

* I was interviewed a few weeks ago by Aspen Entrepreneurs. If you’re curious about the origin story of OpenSnow, my thoughts on the upcoming winter, and lots of other details about the business and the weather, give it a listen! Go to my episode.

 

OpenSummit

We have an iPhone app that provides detailed weather forecasts for your hiking, biking, and climbing adventures. OpenSummit now includes forecasts for 1,000 of the highest and/or notable summits and hiking areas across the United States. Download OpenSummit (iPhone only)

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains