Tuesday morning pow

On Monday morning, we talked about how instability on Monday afternoon could lead to scattered intense bursts of snow for the central and northern mountains, then on Monday night, the jet stream could give us a little punch with an additional few inches for the central and northern mountains. The forecast was up to 6 inches if these factors came together nicely, and for soft conditions on Tuesday morning.

The atmosphere decided to play along with this forecast, and the snow reports on Tuesday morning are looking solid for many central and northern mountains.

Below are snow totals from Monday 500 am to Tuesday 500 am.

Steamboat: 7” (mid-mountain), 9-12” (summit)
Snowmass: 6”
Winter Park: 6”
Aspen Mountain: 5”
Vail: 4-5”
Aspen Highlands: 4”
Beaver Creek: 4”
Many mountains: 1-3”

The summit snow stake cam at Steamboat showed 4” during the day on Monday plus 8 inches on Monday night for a total of 12 inches. This differs from the official summit measurement of 9 inches, and the official mid-mountain measurement of 7 inches. Measurements can differ across the mountain, and despite the differences, it's a certainty that there will be a fun powder morning at Steamboat on Tuesday!

Snow totals across Colorado have been healthy during the past five days. The 5-6 day snow totals from last Thursday through today (Tuesday) range from 10-20 inches for most mountains. That’s a solid couple days of snow!

Tuesday forecast

Most mountains will be sunny and dry on Tuesday. The northern mountains could see a few snow showers continue through mid-morning, though the low clouds are starting to clear out in spots. Temperatures are cold across the state, starting the day in the single digits above zero and only warming into the low teens.

The image below is from the summit Beaver Creek looking toward the east-northeast. The report at Beaver Creek is 4 inches. With this fresh snow on the ground, lingering low clouds in the distance, and the sun about to rise, this scene is one of the reasons I love winter!

Wednesday

A quick and weak bit of energy could bring 1-3 inches of snow to the central and northern mountains, generally from Aspen and north, with the best chances being further north around Steamboat, Rocky Mountain National Park, and Cameron Pass. Also, temperatures will be much warmer with highs rising by 15 degrees from Tuesday to top out in the mid-20s.

The high-resolution CAIC WRF forecast does a pretty good job of showing what we expect from this quick wave of snow on Wednesday.

As I’ve said many times, a forecast for a few inches of snow might not seem noteworthy, but it’s consistent snow for many days that lead to and maintains soft and fun conditions, so even a weak event like Wednesday’s snow is beneficial!

Thursday, Friday, Saturday

We should see snow at all mountains on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, with the best chance for deeper powder in the southern mountains on Friday, however, I have low confidence in this forecast.

The storm will track over New Mexico, and this should bring the most snow to New Mexico and Colorado’s southern mountains. Some models show lots of moisture moving over all of Colorado, leading to snow for the central and northern mountains as well. Maybe we’ll see more model consistency by Wednesday and can fine-tune the forecast.

For now, let’s go with 4-8 inches in the southern mountains with the best powder on Friday or maybe Saturday morning. For other mountains, expect a few inches of snow with softer conditions maybe Friday and Saturday morning.

Below is the University of Utah multi-model forecast for Wolf Creek, Colorado, in our southern mountains. The model average is about 6-7 inches with a range from 1-24 inches. I do have high confidence that the actual snowfall will fall in this 1-24 inch range (ha ha:-).

Saturday, Sunday, Monday

These days should be dry for most of the state. Snow showers could hang around on Saturday morning, then Sunday and Monday will be warm and dry, with the warmest temperatures (in the 30s and low 40s) on Monday.

We are going to get back to business (snow!) starting late on Tuesday (December 11) or early on Wednesday (December 12). This storm is still way out in the western Pacific Ocean, but all models have been consistent in their forecast that this system should bring at least a little snow to Colorado on the 11th and 12th.

Then it’s likely that we’ll continue to see storms after the 12th. It’s unwise to look at the details of the forecast 8+ days away, but I like the trend in the models out through the middle of December as all models show multiple storms heading through the Rockies, including Colorado.

Once again, Colorado is doing great this early season with lots of terrain open, a deep base, light snow this week, a brief dry spell early next week, and then more storms heading into the middle of December.

If you live here, I hope that you have been enjoying this early-season snow or have plans to catch the next cycle. If you are planning a trip here in December, there should be plenty of terrain open with mid-winter like conditions.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Wednesday, December 5.

JOEL GRATZ

 My upcoming presentations about the winter forecast and tips for chasing pow! 

* December 5 in Denver at the Denver Athletic Club in the "Centennial Room". Start time is 600pm and admission is $5 which includes a complimentary beer. Details here. 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains