Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 5 years ago February 27, 2019
Big Potential Friday to Tuesday, Still Lacking Detail
Summary
Wednesday will be dry and then light accumulations will occur over the northern and central mountains on Wednesday evening. Thursday morning will return to being dry, then expect snow from Thursday evening through Monday. The potential for 1-2+ FEET for most mountains exists, with different mountains favored at different times in the storm. There is near zero agreement among all of the models, so I am finding it difficult to pinpoint which mountains will be the deepest on which days. So much potential, so much uncertainty!
Short Term Forecast
Wednesday
Wednesday morning and midday will be partly cloudy and we’ll see similar temperatures to Tuesday with afternoon highs in the upper 20s to mid-30s. Then expect snow showers starting in the late afternoon and continuing through midnight in the northern and central mountains. Accumulations should be a dusting to 3 inches.
Thursday
We should wake up to a little bit of new snow in the morning thanks to the flakes we’ll see on Wednesday evening. Most of the day will be dry.
Storm Thursday Night through Tuesday
The title of this post says it all – “Big Potential, Still Lacking Detail”.
I worked for hours on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, looking at eight models and trying to figure out if I could pull together any pieces of the forecast where the models agreed.
The only way the models agree is that they all show a LOT of snow from Thursday night through Tuesday morning. All models show multiple FEET of total snowfall across these four days.
The multi-model precipitation forecast continues to show 1-2 inches of precipitation across all mountains, with perhaps 2-3 inches in spots. This would equate to at least 12-24 inches, and maybe over 30 inches of snow.
That’s the good news, that all mountains should see deep snow.
The bad news is that still have nearly zero confidence is which days will be the deepest and where.
To illustrate the uncertainty, let’s focus on Saturday morning. There is the potential for intense snow on Saturday morning near a west-to-east stalled cold front in combination with the jet stream helping to lift the air in the upper atmosphere. That sounds great: Cold Front + Jet Stream = intense snow. So where will this narrow line of intense snow set up?
The current version of the American GFS model says that Saturday morning’s line of intense snow will be just south of I-70 and near Aspen.
The newer version of the American GFS model says that Saturday morning’s line of intense snow will be further north, just north of I-70 and perhaps near Steamboat.
And a more recent version of the newer version of the GFS model says something entirely different, with Saturday morning's most intense snow setting up north of Steamboat.
The difference in the forecast I show above is for only one 6-hour period out of this potential 96-hour storm, and it’s just the variability within one model. Now multiply this variability across eight models and 16 six-hour periods and you can see my frustration!
Just tell me where and why to ski for the deepest powder!
I wish I could. Maybe I’ll have a better idea tomorrow (Thursday). If you force me to make an estimate, I’d say somewhere in the northern and central mountains on Friday and Saturday, and somewhere in the central and southern mountains on Sunday and Monday.
If you find all of this uncertainty exciting and a bit frustrating, welcome to the club! I plan my skiing around these forecasts and would really like to nail down where I should chase, but I just can’t figure that out right now. Remember that there is a lot of snow coming and we should have a fun four-day weekend. Hold on to that excitement and I hope we’ll know more details soon.
Extended Forecast
We should see a break in the snow during the middle of next week, maybe later on Tuesday into early Wednesday (March 5-6). Then chances are good that snow will return later next week with perhaps another system around the following weekend (March 9-10). The storm train is cruisin’ along!
Thanks for reading!
My next update will be on Thursday morning.
JOEL GRATZ
Announcements
OpenSnow + Surfline
We've partnered with our friends at Surfline to bring you 3 free months of Surfline Premium when you upgrade to OpenSnow All-Access! Current All-Access subscribers can visit your Settings page to find the unique Surfline Premium code under 'All-Access Promo Codes'. Click here for more details.
Geography Key
Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass
East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass
Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn
Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains
About Our Forecaster
Joel Gratz
Founding Meteorologist
Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.
Free OpenSnow App
