Stay At Home Colorado

“I direct all Coloradans to stay at home, subject to limited exceptions such as obtaining food and other household necessities, going to and from work at critical businesses, seeking medical care, caring for dependents or pets, or caring for a vulnerable person in another location.” This directive by the governor is in force from March 26 through at least April 11. Here is the full text of the Executive Order. Here is an explainer article.

Is Backcountry Skiing Really Closed?

Based on this article by journalist and backcountry rider Jason Blevins, resorts can amend their operating plan with the US Forest Service to prohibit uphill access, but shutting down federal land access to non-locals might not be legal even if it’s the right thing to do.

The Future of the Colorado Daily Snow for this Season

I will continue to write the Colorado Daily Snow each day for informational purposes and to provide positive news during this otherwise mostly negative news cycle. Based on the Governor’s Executive Order, going outside to get exercise is allowed. But I think we can all agree that sticking around the house for a few weeks is what most public health experts recommend, seems reasonable in the face of the threat, and will limit the spread of the virus while governments and companies can ramp up testing.

Help a Small Business

The “Man Behind the Maps” book is something that most of us die-hard skiers and riders would love. If you don’t already have a copy, buying it through this local bookstore is Edwards, Colorado is a way to support a small business. One of the store’s employees reached out to ask me to share this note and I am happy to do so. The book is the same price or even less expensive compared to other sources I checked online, so you’d get a great book, at the best price, and support a local business. Buy the book here: https://www.bookwormofedwards.com/product/man-behind-maps

Support Those In Need

We compiled an admittedly incomplete list of organizations that need our help and support. See the list here:

https://opensnow.com/news/post/help-support-covid-19-relief-efforts

The Weather

Wednesday was a mixed day with some sunshine, clouds, and a few high-elevation snow showers. Thursday should be similar, though we’ll also deal with gusty high-elevation winds of 40-60mph.

This sunrise picture on Thursday morning from Keystone shows plenty of cloud cover and a few breaks of sunshine sneaking through.

We are 12 days away from the date of our average peak snowpack, which is April 7. The snowpack across all river basins in Colorado is looking good, from 10-20% above average in the northern and central mountains to about average in the central to southern mountains.

With two moderate storms in the forecast for the next five days, we should be able to maintain or slightly grow our snowpack through early April.

Friday is when we’ll see our next chance for snow. The day should start on the dry side, and then showers will ramp up by midday and afternoon. On Friday night, snow showers should continue for all mountains, and then on Saturday, snow showers will linger over the northern mountains.

For the storm, I am going to drop my average snow forecast to 3-6 inches. This storm will strengthen as it moves to the east of Colorado, but the latest models are not consistently showing deep totals, so it’s wise to be more conservative in the face of uncertainty and a slightly decreasing trend.

The latest CAIC WRF 2km model shows a general 3-6 inch forecast across the state, yet, the image below is vastly different than the forecast from 24 hours ago, which is why I mentioned the lingering uncertainty in the snowfall pattern.

With temperatures in a favorable zone for snowfall (-10°C at 10,000 feet) and a wind direction from the northwest, it’s possible that some northern mountains could see more snow than the forecast shows, especially from late Friday night through Saturday midday.

Saturday night through early Sunday will be the best chance for dry weather.

Then the next storm will bring showers from Sunday afternoon through Monday night. This looks like another moderate event with 1-6 inches of accumulation. That should be enough to maintain our snowpack going into April.

Speaking of April, the middle of next week looks dry, and the next chance for a storm should be sometime between Friday, April 3 through Sunday, April 5.

Thanks for reading!

Stay healthy, stay happy.

My next post will be on Friday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Fundraiser

Christy Sports is selling all winter inventory from now through March 26th, with 10% of all sales going to support local COVID-19 relief efforts. Learn More.

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains