We are lucky that ski resorts are open (due to COVID-19, that's not true of all places in the world) and that there's enough snow to ride.

But of course, the not-so-great news is our low-tide snowpack for most of Colorado with many regions at 30-35% below average.

 

We'll revisit the map above in about one week and see what improvement this next series of storms can cook up.

Wednesday & Wednesday Night

Surprise! Lingering moisture dropped a coating to an inch of snow on some spots, namely Crested Butte and Irwin with some flakes also reported at Cooper and Keystone. 

Thursday & Thursday Night

More of the same. Lingering moisture and weak storm energy will combine to create some flakes. Most models show scattered accumulations of a dusting to an inch or two. Low expectations are the key to a happy life around snow:-)

Friday, Jan 22 – Saturday, Jan 30

The theme for these 7-8 days will be "southwest flow". The main area of storm energy will stay to our west and will eject out smaller pieces of storm energy that will move over Colorado from the southwest. As each of these smaller pieces of storm energy passes, snow will ramp up, and then we'll see a break as we wait for the next piece of storm energy.

What all models agree on is that we'll see a southwest flow.

What no models agree on is the timing of when each smaller piece of storm energy will pass by. While there is some agreement about the periods of steadier snow occurring on Friday night into Saturday, again on Sunday, again on Tuesday, and maybe again later in the week, I still lack some confidence in this, and even if the models are off by only a few hours, it makes a big difference when figuring out what days will be deepest.

The main thing to remember for the upcoming week is that southwest flow will heavily favor the far southern mountains and snow accumulations at other mountains will be more random with a slight advantage to areas that are farther to the west like Irwin, Sunlight, Powderhorn, and maybe Steamboat.

The multi-model precipitation forecast below is something I have posted for the last few days and will continue to post updates of this same map because it's the way I think about this storm – much more snow south, decent snow west, more random/less snow to the north and east. Orange areas show the potential for more than one foot.

If you're reading this and feeling frustrated about the vagueness of the forecast, trust me, I am also frustrated, but when all major models offer somewhat differing forecasts for the timing and strength of each incoming wave of snow, this is what we have to deal with.

To pin things down a little bit, it looks like the first wave of snow could move through between Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon/evening, so there is an outside chance for some soft turns on Friday's last chair and a much better chance for soft turns during the day on Saturday. After that, I'm not sure how much snow will fall Saturday night through Monday (a better chance that snow continues in the southern mountains), and then the next wave of snow should move through late Monday night through Tuesday.

Our multi-model snow forecast comparison is available here for Colorado. If you see high snow forecast numbers, that means that multiple models are in agreement. If you see low snow forecast numbers, that means that either multiple models agree that there will be little snow OR multiple models disagree about the timing of the snow, and averaging the models results in lower totals for each day/night. On that screen, there are multiple views including a "Summary" view showing totals by day and, my favorite, the "10-Day Forecast" view that breaks up the forecast into day and night time periods for the next 10 days.

Bottom Line

There will be snow nearly every day between this Friday and later next week for the southern mountains with deep totals of multiple feet. Snowfall for other mountains will be more intermittent with totals of likely 10 inches or fewer (unless some spots get lucky, which is possible). Initially, the best snow could be on Saturday, and then after that, I have low confidence in the timing.

Later next week, around January 28-29, we could see a break in the snow.

Then a storm is possible around Friday into Saturday, January 29-30.

Looking ahead to early February, most models show the development of flow from the west-northwest or northwest, which could be more favorable for Colorado's northern and central mountains.

This is still one-and-a-half to two weeks away, so while this setup does look good, we won't know the details for at least another week. Will storms hit us? Will they miss and go north? Will they dive farther south like they have all season? We'll figure it out eventually.

Perspective

I will continue to post reader-submitted pictures to keep us motivated to ride even during periods of drier weather. Here is today's photo, and if this looks like fun, please see the note below in the announcements section about backcountry skiing.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Backcountry

If you've seen pictures of backcountry riding in fresh powder, and it looks appealing, please remember that going into the backcountry is awesome AND requires education if you're going to enjoy it safely and respectfully.

This is a great place to start to find out more about taking educational classes, hiring guides, and in general, to learn how to get into the backcountry and have a ton of fun and do so safely: https://www.colorado.com/WinterBackcountrySafety

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains