Let's get right to it!

Snow Totals: Thursday – Thursday Night

The storm came through. The numbers below are from Thursday at 500am to Friday at 500am and I noted the range of snow that fell before this time as well.

Northern Mountains (1-5" on Wed & Wed Night)

16" Flattops (SNOTEL)
10" Rocky Mountain National Park (SNOTEL)
10" Steamboat (Snow Stake)
10" Vail (Snow Stake)
8" Beaver Creek (Snow Stake)
6" Cameron Pass (Sensor)
5" Copper (Snow Stake)
4" Winter Park (Snow Stake)
3" Breckenridge (Snow Stake)
2" A-Basin (Snow Stake)
2" Eldora (Snow Stake)
2" Keystone (Snow Stake)
2" Loveland (Snow Stake)

Central Mountains (2-9" on Wed & Wed Night)

22" Grand Mesa (SNOTEL)
20" Crested Butte (Snow Stake)
18" Schofield Pass (SNOTEL)
17" Irwin (Sensor)
14" Aspen Highlands (Sensor)
14" McClure Pass (SNOTEL)
13" Aspen Mountain (Sensor)
13" Buttermilk (Sensor)
11" Snowmass (Sensor)
4" Monarch (Snow Stake)

Southern Mountains (2-6" on Wed & Wed Night)

25" Coal Bank Pass (Sensor)
20"+ Wolf Creek (SNOTEL)
15" Red Mountain Pass (SNOTEL)
14" Purgatory (Snow Stake)
12" Telluride (Sensor)
7" Telluride (Snow Stake)

These are solid 24-hour snowfall numbers. Snowfall of  15-25 inches in 24 hours is usually the high-end of how much snow we can get in Colorado in a 24-hour time period.

The winner (so far) is Crested Butte with 8" on Wednesday night and 20" since for a total of 28"+ inches. Here is the CB snow stake, nearly completely buried on Friday morning.

 

I expected Crested Butte to do well, but not this well. Most models were showing that the wind direction would be from the southwest on Thursday night, and that's not great for Crested Butte. In reality, the wind direction was closer to west-southwest, and that's the absolute best direction for Crested Butte to get snow.

In other surprising news, the 12+ inches that fell in the Aspen area was more than I expected with a wind direction from the southwest and south-southwest (according to a sensor on Aspen Highlands). Those are not great wind directions for intense snow. But here we are with a foot of fresh on the stakes, and that's true of lower-elevation Buttermilk as well.

Aside from those surprises, the other snow totals were roughly in line with expectations going into this storm.

Friday

If you're heading out to ski/ride in the powder, here are a couple of my thoughts.

First, the snow that fell is thick and dense due to warm temperatures. This is great for building a base and for our water supply, but it's not blower pow (the snow that falls during the day on Friday should be fluffier).

Second, avalanche risk is rated "High" in many zones due to the dense, new snow. Check out the map here to see the rating then click any zone to see more details and be linked directly to the CAIC detailed avalanche forecast.

Third, there is very little terrain open as, before this storm, lots of lower-elevation areas had little to no snow and upper-elevations were thin in most spots. There could be some rope drops today for sure, but that's hard to predict.

Weatherwise on Friday, the steady snow will last through the early morning, then after about 9-10 am, we'll transition to more showery on-and-off snowfall. Temperatures will be dropping into the teens and single digits throughout the day, yet with the very cold air not arriving until later in the day, we should have enough moisture available for an additional 2-6 inches of snow during the first 2/3rds of the day. I'm watching Steamboat as a wind from the west-northwest and summit temperatures around 5°F sometimes leads to more snow than expected.

Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday

Saturday will be dry, start cold with temperatures near 0°F, and then readings will warm into the teens and 20s.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will be dry and warmer with high temperatures in the 30s.

Our next chance for snow will be on Wednesday, December 15th. Most models are converging on a forecast that would bring a LOT of moisture into Colorado and a wind direction from the southwest for most of the storm. This could favor the far southern and far western mountains with 10-20+ inches of snow and lower totals of maybe 2-8 inches for other mountains.

Beyond the storm on the 15th, there could be another storm sometime around the 17-20th. And then the week leading up to Christmas should be stormy across the west.

Those blue colors in the map above show storminess. It's no guarantee that western storminess will mean deep accumulations in Colorado, but it's certainly a better-looking forecast than if we had red colors (high pressure) over the west.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS – Thank you to the many people that joined me on Youtube Live on Thursday night. I answered about 40 questions and we took a deep dive into the details of the forecast for this storm. I'll hold another live session soon. Watch this space for an announcement.

PPS – Starting next week (on or around December 13), we are going to make some significant changes to OpenSnow. If you're an All-Access subscriber (thank you!), you'll see no changes. If you are not an All-Access subscriber, here is an FAQ with more details about the upcoming changes, and we hope that eventually, we'll earn your support.

Here is a 3-minute video that I made (with my son Levi) to introduce a few of the upcoming changes. Please watch the video to at least see what Levi has to say to everyone at the end (non of this was scripted/rehearsed and I'm surprised it worked out!). If you can't see the video embedded below, tap here.

And below are videos from our Tahoe forecaster Bryan and our Utah forecast Evan. I hope that you'll take another few minutes to meet them as well!

Bryan in Tahoe:

Evan in Utah:

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains