I want to wish everyone a Happy New Year and a Happy Powder Day this Saturday, though I'm going to mention again the horrible fire that happened on Thursday and which took the homes of many in our community.

The Fire

On Thursday, a fast-moving wildfire destroyed hundreds of homes in the area of Louisville and Superior, just south of Boulder and north of Denver. The fire was potentially sparked by a downed power line, and it moved very quickly due to wind gusts of 75-100+ mph. Most reports show that the fire destroyed at least hundreds of homes. I have friends that were directly impacted, and I am sure that many people in our OpenSnow community of snow lovers also lost homes and businesses. It's hard for me to be excited about powder in the mountains when a large part of a community burned and will take years to rebuild a sense of normalcy. Thankfully, it seems like the number of injuries is very, very low, which is perhaps the most important and comforting fact.

Recap: Friday & Saturday

Snow started on Thursday night, continued through the day on Friday, continued on Friday night, and is now lingering but generally at a light intensity on Saturday morning. 

The 24-hour storm totals from Friday morning to Saturday morning were lower than I expected at many mountains, but this was still a good storm, and conditions on Saturday morning will be fun and soft.

The highest 24-hour totals were at Powderhorn (17"), Silverton (14"), Wolf Creek (14"), Telluride (13"), Monarch (12"), and Crested Butte (10"), which are all central and southern mountains that are favored by winds from the west-southwest (though Powderhorn's big pop came from winds from the north which is the direction that gives them the best chance for a high-side surprise of fluffy pow). Most other mountains were in the 6-10 inch range. I thought we'd see another 'pop' of snow deliver at least a few more inches late on Friday night into Saturday morning as storm energy lingered overhead, but that didn't happen at most areas.

If you head out on Saturday morning, dress warmly. Temperatures at most mountains are between 0°F to +10°F and these temperatures will hold steady or fall during the day. Max layers, max hand warmers, max toe warmers! 

Recap: The 9-Day Storm Cycle

We went into late December with near record-low snowpack at the mid-and-higher elevations across the state. Now nine days later, our snowpack is 114% of the median and is likely higher because the graphic ends on Friday morning and we had more snow since then. Don't call it a comeback:-)

To put the storm cycle into perspective, this is a note that I received from Jen & Aaron Brill, owners of Silverton Mountain in the southern mountains:

Happy New Year! The storm wrapped up with a bang here with another 14” on top of the 10” from [Friday's] report. That brings us to an even 100” for the storm cycle and 140” for December. Nice way to start the season: ) However, it doesn’t match our all-time December record where we hit 200” previously.

In other areas, Wolf Creek went over 100 inches for the cycle, Crested Butte hit about 99 inches during the last nine days, and in general, total snowfall across Colorado during the last nine days ranged from 3 feet to 10 feet.

Most mountains should now be fully open or will be fully open soon, and from a backcountry perspective, we just added a lot of weight to the snowpack, so please check the avalanche forecast and remember that that is still plenty of time (months!) to play in the snow and to keep activities within your risk tolerance.

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday

Following Saturday's lingering light snow and cold temperatures, Sunday will also start out very cold with temperatures below 0°F, but it'll be sunny on Sunday and temperatures will rise into the teens.

Monday will also be sunny with high temperatures in the 20s.

On Tuesday, expect dry weather and temperatures rising into the 20s, though we will also see more clouds filtering the sunshine.

Snow will return from Wednesday, January 5 through Sunday, January 9. During this time, we'll be on the southern edge of the storm track.

I have been cautious about promising significant snow from January 5-9 because being on the edge of the storm track means that a slight wobble in the flow to the north could mean that we'd get very little snow. But the latest models are all now in decent agreement that the northern mountains WILL see snow during multiple days, so I feel more confident when talking about potential upcoming powder days.

What I am about to say applies mostly to the northern mountains. The central mountains could still see snow, but likely with lower totals, or at least I have lower confidence. And the southern mountains will likely see less or little or no snow, but that's OK as they were just walloped during the last nine days!

The first round of snow should fall from Wednesday through about Friday and the best powder day cold be on Thursday with soft leftovers on Friday. 

The second round of snow could come during the weekend of January 8-9. This second round of snow is less certain so just pencil it in for now – it's not a lock.

Then, looking out beyond the likely storm cycle from January 5-9, there is a high chance that we will see dry weather for at least one week starting around January 10. This is when the main area of storminess will head to the east.

Some of the longer-range models bring storminess back to the western US during the third week of January, but that's far away into 'fantasy land' of weather model forecasting so I won't think too much about that at the moment.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS – The significant changes to OpenSnow that I've talked about are now live. If you're an All-Access subscriber (thank you!), you'll see no changes. If you are not an All-Access subscriber, here is an FAQ with more details about the upcoming changes, and we hope that eventually, we'll earn your support. Also, you can watch 2-3 minute videos about these changes made by myself, our Tahoe forecaster BA, and our Utah forecaster Evan. And finally, check out our Utah forecaster Evan's Twitter thread showing exactly how he uses OpenSnow's All-Access features to track powder.

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains