Monday was sunny for most of the day with more clouds covering the sky into the afternoon and evening. Those clouds were the precursor to the storm that we're seeing now on Tuesday.

The current storm began to drop snow in the northern mountains between Monday midnight and Tuesday sunrise and snow didn't start in the central mountains until closer to sunrise.

Most official reports on Tuesday morning show 1 inch of accumulation, and snow stake cams look generally like this.

Speaking of snow stake cams, our feed is down for Loveland and Winter Park, but I hope to get them back live ASAP. And the snow stake cam at Eldora is down, too. Bummer.

During the day on Tuesday, I have the most confidence in snow amounts for the foothills east of the divide, including the east side of Rocky Mountain National Park and Eldora, and these spots could see 5+ inches of snow. For other areas, I have decent confidence that we should be able to get into the 2-5 inch range, with maybe a band of steadier snow during the morning and midday in the northern and central mountains, and snow waiting until Tuesday afternoon and evening in the southern mountains.

I have low confidence in snow totals in the southern mountains. All models show that some areas of the southern mountains could get 3-6 inches of snow on Tuesday evening, which would make for fun conditions on Wednesday morning, but no models agree about where these favored spots will be. I think Wolf Creek might have the best shot due to favorable winds from the northeast. We'll see.

The map above is the multi-model snow forecast, which hasn't changed much during the past few days.

The map below is our own high-resolution 1km model. I agree about the snow amounts in the upper-right corner. Otherwise, the higher snow totals around Breckenridge, Copper, Vail, Beaver Creek, and Cooper are exciting but I have low confidence that this will actually happen. Also, we can see that Monarch is on the edge and most models only show ~4 inches of snow there even though the storm setup is reasonably similar to when they received 9 inches during the last storm. And again, those higher totals in the southern mountains are possible somewhere, we just don't know where!

The wrap-up for Tuesday is that most mountains will see some fresh snow, the fluffy snow should soften conditions a bit, at least on groomers and on north-facing shaded areas, and spots east of the divide have the best chance for the deeper totals.

Wednesday

It'll be a dry, sunny, and chilly day with a high temperature in the teens. Wednesday morning might offer soft conditions somewhere in the southern mountains.

Thursday

This will be the coldest day of the week with high temperatures around 10°F or into the low teens. Another storm, like the one today on Tuesday, could bring a few inches of snow to areas near and east of the divide and anything from a dusting to an inch or two west of the divide.

On Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, the weather will be dry, skies will be mostly sunny, and temperatures will be warmer with highs in the 20s to mid-30s.

Then, right on cue, the weather pattern will change on Tuesday, February 1st, and we will see a better chance for cooler temperatures (top map) and precipitation (bottom map) as we move through the first few days of February.

The graphics showing all 51 versions of the European EPS model and all 31 versions of the American GEFS model highlight that the best chance for snow next week will be sometime between Tuesday, February 1, and Thursday or Friday, February 3-4.

That's the good news, that we should see a storm between February 1-4.

The not-so-good news is what we see on the right side of the graphics above, with less color and more white, which means more model versions show drier weather between about February 5-8. I'd rather see more versions showing more precipitation, but all hope is not lost, and I am only mentioning this shift toward a somewhat drier forecast as it's a departure from what we've been talking about. That said, we're looking out 10-15 days, and these multi-version forecasts can make big shifts toward snowier or drier weather, so I am not reading too much into this drying trend, yet. 

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS – David Taft is a long-time reader of the Colorado Daily Snow and is also the Conservation Director at San Juan Mountains Association. He asked me to pass along this note about a program that you might be interested in. If find yourself near Durango and Silverton (specifically: Molas Pass) any Saturday from now through March, please pre-register and then enjoy the 2-hour afternoon event. It's fun and free (donations accepted).

San Juan Mountains Association is proud to present our Apres Ski Science and Social, a guided ski/snowshoe hike followed by a bonfire and hot beverages in which we’ll discuss forest health, watersheds, climate change, and how all of these impact the future of snow in the San Juan Mountains. Free programs kick off from the OR Tiny House at Andrews Lake winter parking lot beginning January 15th and occur every other Saturday through March. Register at https://sjma.org/event/winter-event-1/

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains