Wednesday was sunny with cool temperatures in the teens and 20s.

Late on Wednesday night, the first part of the next storm dropped flakes on most mountains near and north of I-70. There is a dusting to an inch of fluffy snow accumulation on most of these snow stake cams as of about 500am on Thursday morning.

For the day on Thursday, the best chance for seeing a period of steadier snow in the north half of Colorado will be during the middle of the day, roughly between 900am to 200pm. For the central and southern mountains, the best chance for seeing a period of steadier snow will be during the afternoon, roughly between 1200pm to 500pm.

Like the storm we saw earlier this week on Tuesday, the storm today (Thursday) will not deliver significant accumulations. We should see just an inch or two west of the divide with 2-4 inches near and east of the divide. Our own high-resolution 1km model does a pretty nice job highlighting the areas with the highest snow potential (green = 3-4 inches or so). These higher totals could be around and north of Eldora, close to Monarch, near Cuchara, and around Wolf Creek. 

For Thursday's snow conditions, it will be fluff on firm, and temperatures will be chilly in the low-to-mid teens.

After Thursday's storm moves on, the weather on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday will be dry and mostly sunny. Temperatures on Friday will be cool, in the upper teens to low 20s, then from Saturday to Monday, temperatures will be warmer with readings in the upper 20s to upper 30s.

For weeks, we have been talking about a change in the weather pattern right around February 1st, and this forecast will somewhat come to fruition.

We will see a storm start sometime on Tuesday, February 1, and snow could continue through Wednesday, February 2. The blue colors in the map below show the storm moving across the Rockies.

As I mentioned yesterday, all signs are pointing toward next week's snowfall favoring areas east of the divide and also the southern mountains. Below is the average snow forecast from multiple versions of the European model. I do not look at this map for snow totals (because the model is lower resolution) and rather use the map to see which areas are favored for more snowfall. Clearly, there is an indication for more snow over Colorado's eastern and southern mountains.

My initial forecast for next week's snowfall is that we'll see some on Tuesday with a better chance for snow later on Tuesday night into Wednesday, and Wednesday might have the softest snow. If the current forecast holds, the amount of snow across most mountains could be 6 inches or fewer, with southern and eastern areas maybe seeing double-digit snow totals. On the backside of the Tuesday/Wednesday storm, there could be a little more snow on Thursday into Friday.

February 6-10

We could see a break in the snow sometime around Saturday, February 5, to Sunday, February 6.

Then, during the week of February 6-10, we'll have to wait and see if there will be good news.

During this time, the average of multiple versions of the European model shows more storminess to our east and leaves Colorado in a position for lower snow totals as moisture-starved systems brush by us from the northwest.

Below, on the other hand, is the average of multiple versions of the American model, which hints at storminess centering itself closer to the Rockies, which would yield a much higher chance for moderate or even significant snow totals during the February 6-10 time frame.

I started the Extended Forecast section by saying that the forecasted change in the weather pattern in February will somewhat come to fruition as we will see a stronger storm around February 1-2.

If the American model is correct and we see another round of storminess around February 6-10, then I will feel that the forecast for a stormier weather pattern in February will be validated.

But if most of the storminess stays to our east in mid-February, as the European model (and Canadian model) show, then I will feel that the forecast for a stormier start to February will be a bust.

We'll see how it shakes out. I have low expectations and high hopes!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS – David Taft is a long-time reader of the Colorado Daily Snow and is also the Conservation Director at San Juan Mountains Association. He asked me to pass along this note about a program that you might be interested in. If find yourself near Durango and Silverton (specifically: Molas Pass) any Saturday from now through March, please pre-register and then enjoy the 2-hour afternoon event. It's fun and free (donations accepted).

San Juan Mountains Association is proud to present our Apres Ski Science and Social, a guided ski/snowshoe hike followed by a bonfire and hot beverages in which we’ll discuss forest health, watersheds, climate change, and how all of these impact the future of snow in the San Juan Mountains. Free programs kick off from the OR Tiny House at Andrews Lake winter parking lot beginning January 15th and occur every other Saturday through March. Register at https://sjma.org/event/winter-event-1/

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains