Happy first day of March! Currently, it feels like April, and in a few days, it'll feel more like February. So it goes with springtime in the Rockies.

Before getting to the forecast, let's check in on the state of our snowpack.

We are still sitting at close to average for this time of the season, but every river basin's percent of average declined from the start of February to the start of March.

From a statewide perspective, this season's snowpack (black line) went sideways for a lot of February, indicating drier weather. It was only toward the end of the month that we saw a meaningful increase with decent snow over the northern mountains and significant snow over the central and southern mountains.

We are now around 96% of the average snowpack, statewide, in the mid-and-upper elevations (where most SNOTEL sites are located).

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

The next three days will be dry and temperatures will be warm, pushing into the 30s and 40s for afternoon highs at many mountains. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly sunny, then on Thursday, high clouds will filter the sunshine.

The weather will flip from spring back to winter as we head into the weekend.

The stormy period should be between Friday, March 4, and Monday, March 7. 

• Friday, March 4: Snow showers with some very intense showers. Like summertime thunderstorms, it's impossible to know which mountains will be hit and which will be missed. These showers will continue into Friday night. There could be some late-afternoon powder from these showers.
  
  
• Saturday, March 5: Powder possible thanks to the showers on Friday and Friday night, and maybe lighter-but-steadier snow during the day.
  
  
• Sunday, March 6: Snow should ramp up during the day as storm energy moves close to Colorado. There could be powder, with slightly higher odds of this powder during the afternoon and over the northern and central mountains, thanks to the wind switching to blow from the west and northwest.
  
  
• Monday, March 7: Snow should wind down, though showers could persist. Due to the snow on the previous two-to-three days, conditions should at least be soft, even if they aren't deep.

Total snowfall from Friday, March 4, to Monday, March 7 will likely average 8-16 inches for most mountains, but this is just the average. If a mountain is hit by an intense cell on Friday or Saturday, they could see 2-3 inches per hour and go above this range, and vice versa if a mountain misses some of the stronger cells. Based on the wind direction, I would give the higher odds for powder to the southern and central mountains on Friday and Saturday, and then the odds could shift somewhat to the central and northern mountains on Sunday and Monday.

Next Week

Following potential snow and powder on Monday, March 7, we should see a day or two of drier weather. Then a stronger storm should arrive around Thursday, March 10 with powder days possible late in the week.

Far Out

The longest range forecast models, which go out to 30-45 days, are showing a tendency for stormy weather to stick around the western US throughout all of March. This does NOT mean that it will snow every day, but this is good news and should mean that we'll see multiple storms or storm cycles throughout the month.

Both the European and American models show this stormier weather over the western US for the month of March (blue colors), so I am optimistic that it will be an active month. Of course, both of these models have over-promised and under-delivered during earlier parts of the season, so their forecasts should NOT be taken as fact, but I do think that the signal is good news.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains