Wednesday was warm with afternoon high temperatures reaching the 40s at most mountains. 

Today, Thursday, will be another warm day with afternoon highs in the 40s. There will be more clouds covering the sky and filtering the sunshine today, especially over the northern and central mountains, and perhaps this will keep temperatures just a few degrees cooler compared to Wednesday. But still, it'll be warm.

Friday is when our weather pattern will flip from sunshine to stormy.

On Friday during the day, there will likely be a brief wave of showers that move across the state from the southwest to the northeast during the morning and midday. We might see some snowflakes and raindrops, but the lower atmosphere will be rather dry, so some of this precipitation may evaporate before it reaches the ground.

From Friday late afternoon/evening into Saturday morning, we'll see the first round of more intense showers. These showers will act like summertime thunderstorms with intense snow hitting some areas and missing other areas. Also, there will be a chance for some lightning strikes.

On Saturday, there might be some powder from the snow on Friday night, and there could be additional snow showers during the day.

Then on Saturday night, the second round of intense showers should move across the state, initially targeting the southern mountains.

On Sunday, the southern mountains could see powder from the snow on Saturday night, and then during Sunday midday and afternoon, the best chance for snow will be over the central and northern mountains.

Finally, on Sunday night into Monday morning, moisture will linger, storm energy will linger, and the wind will blow from the west and northwest, and this has the potential to bring more snow to the northern mountains, some central mountains like Aspen, and also the northwest side of the southern mountains, like around Silverton and Telluride. So keep your eye on Monday morning as it might offer the softest, deepest, and fluffiest snow of the four-day storm.

Multi-model precipitation totals from Friday through Monday are between 0.6 inches to 1.2 inches. 

Converting this at a 13-to-1 snow-to-liquid ratio equals about 8-16 inches of snow. That feels like a reasonable forecast. But because this storm will bring a lot of showery precipitation, like summertime thunderstorms (have I said that enough times?!), the uncertainty in the forecast snow amounts is high as some mountains could quickly see 2-4 inches of snow in an hour and go above the range if they get hit by the strongest cells, and other mountains might miss out on a lot of the stronger cells on Friday night and Saturday night and see lower snow amounts. Another piece of the puzzle that will drive uncertainty in the forecast is that each part of this storm will strengthen as it moves east of the mountains, and this can create more snow than expected and it also can cause all models to make forecasts that don't quite match reality.

The three-run average snow forecast from our high-resolution model is reasonably bullish with a lot of areas in the red color, which is 10-15 inches of snow between Friday morning and Monday morning.

To recap, on Friday night and Saturday night, there will be intense showers for all mountains. Then from Sunday midday through Monday morning, there will be the potential for steadier snow for the northern mountains, the western part of the central mountains, and the northwest part of the southern mountains. Saturday, Sunday, and Monday could all offer some powder, and with a multi-day storm like this, usually, the best odds of the softest conditions occur later in the storm after there has been more time for the snow to fall.

On Monday afternoon, there could be some showers that continue.

Then from Monday night through Wednesday, we should see a break in the snow with dry weather.

The next storm will arrive around Thursday, March 10. An early estimate is that this storm will bring decent snowfall to most mountains, and also it could deliver very cold air on Thursday into Friday (March 10-11).

Then, another storm could brush northern Colorado on or around Sunday, March 13.

And after that, yet another storm could arrive on or around Thursday, March 17.

So, we have a three-to-four-day storm coming up this weekend, then three potential storms during the following 10 days. This is a nice start to March!

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

P.S. – Check out the 2022 Invest in Kids Jane-A-Thon, the longest-running ski and snowboard fundraising event this Friday and Saturday at Mary Jane. You can still join to raise money to help improve the health and well-being of Colorado's youngest children and families. This year’s event will include skiing and an in-person apres ski party to celebrate success and acknowledge contest winners. It sounds like they are REALLY close to their fundraising goal so donations are still accepted too. Learn more here.

P.P.S – As of today, we have removed the comment section on all Daily Snow webpages (it has never been available on our mobile app). We started the comment section over a decade ago and it used to be a place for a thoughtful and insightful discussion about snow conditions and weather patterns. But during the last 5+ years, a lot of the back-and-forth 'discussion' has been mean and distracting and not always about the snow and weather conditions. So it was time to let the comment section go. Perhaps, one day in the future, we'll bring back some sort of discussion area as it is genuinely awesome (and useful!) to talk with people about snow and weather conditions. But it'll take some thought to make a new discussion area on OpenSnow that is (mostly) immune from the derogatory mindset that often creeps into internet discussions. Thanks to everyone who has added helpful information and a fun attitude to the comment section over the years!

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains