This image, from near the summit of Beaver Creek, looking northeast toward the Gore Range, shows the type of weather we will see for the rest of this week – mostly sunny skies with little or no natural snow on the ground. It is hard to imagine when looking at a picture like this that the entire scene will be snow-covered one week into the future. More on that in a bit:-)

The weather pattern from now, Tuesday, October 18, through Saturday, October 22 will bring dry and warm weather to Colorado. This could be the last solid week of warm and dry weather for at least a decent while into the future.

Snowmaking

At the higher-elevation resorts of A-Basin, Copper, Keystone, and Loveland, the night-time wet-bulb temperature (a measure of BOTH temperature and humidity) is getting cold enough for at least a few hours of snowmaking late at night into the following morning. We can see that this limited snowmaking is producing some piles of snow, though an opening day is likely not imminent. With colder weather next week, maybe, just maybe, there is a chance that a resort (or two) will make enough snow to open one run before the end of October.

Following weeks of mostly sunny and warm weather, a significant storm will bring a big change to our weather with wind and snow this weekend and likely difficult travel over many of the mountain passes. If you were waiting to put your snow tires on, this is likely an excellent week to install them as there will be winter driving on Sunday into Monday through many mountain areas.

• Saturday will be dry with gusty winds as the storm approaches.
  
  
• Saturday night should bring the first batch of rain and snow, though it may only hit some southern and far western mountains by the time we get to sunrise on Sunday.
  
  
• Sunday will be a full-on storm day with periods of intense precipitation, rain changing to snow at most mountains as the temperature cools, and snow likely sticking on many mountain roads.
  
  
• Sunday night into Monday should bring additional snow and cooler temperatures in the teens and 20s for many mountains. Monday will likely feel like a winter day with fresh snow on the ground and snowmaking at many mountains.
  
  
• Snow amounts from Saturday night through Monday could be 6-18 inches, though it's too soon to figure out the details of where the higher and lower amounts will fall.

According to the average of 51 versions of the European forecast model, this will be a strong storm that should directly hit Colorado (the strength is noted by the dark blue and purple in the map below).

While it's highly likely that this storm will hit Colorado, the exact shape and path of the storm are still somewhat uncertain as we are still about five days from the system's arrival. It's these details that will help us to figure out which mountains will see the most and least snow, so until the details are a little more certain, I don't want to throw out specific numbers for specific mountains. That said, the average of most models shows a range of about 0.5 to about 1.5 inches of precipitation, which would equate to about 6-18 inches of snow, so this is likely to be a significant early-season storm.

What this storm means for the upcoming ski season is 'not much' in the grand scheme of things, though the cooler temperatures will help snowmaking efforts, I am sure some people will find snow-on-top-of-grassy-slopes to ride, maybe if Wolf Creek gets two feet they will start spinning lifts (they are known to open after a single storm if there is enough accumulation), and, if additional storms follow this system, then maybe we'll begin to really build our base heading into November.

Speaking of follow-on systems, there will be a chance for 'Storm #2' around October 27-29, though only about 50% of the 51 versions of the European model (image below) are going for this system, and only about 30% of the various versions of the American GEFS and Canadian GEPS models are going for significant precipitation from 'Storm #2".

Even though the weather forecast is uncertain beyond our first storm around October 23-25, the average of many model versions keeps the western US in the blue zone in the map below, which generally means cooler and stormier weather. At the least, this could mean reasonably chilly temperatures through the end of October and a decent chance for efficient snowmaking conditions.

Forecast Anywhere

We just updated our apps and website with the ability for you to get a forecast for any location (on land) across the globe, and you can save any of these "Custom Locations" as a favorite.

Get started by tapping any location on the Map, or learn more about Forecast Anywhere in this article.

Being able to get the forecast and save points as "Custom Locations" means that you can use our forecast data for any place you'd like to go - for backcountry skiing, camping, or even to see how much we think it'll snow in your backyard :-)

Forecast Anywhere is available on both our latest iOS and Android apps, and now on our website as well.

Please check out this new feature and let us know what you think! 

Upcoming In-Person Presentations

Join me for in-person presentations this fall. These talks are fun (yes, the science of powder IS fun:-), and I'll discuss thoughts about the upcoming season and weather forecasting tips and tricks. Also, your attendance at many of these talks supports a local non-profit, so thank you for coming!

• Wed, Oct 26. Denver. Bug Theater (3654 Navajo St)
  600pm Doors Open
  700pm Presentation by Joel Gratz (and likely a ski move, too!)
  Raffle tickets sold to support SOS Outreach
  
  
• Thu, Nov 3. Boulder. Neptune Mountaineering (633 S Broadway)
  630pm Doors Open
  700pm Presentation by Joel Gratz
  Raffle tickets sold to support SOS Outreach
  
  
• Wed, Nov 9. Golden. Powder7 (880 Brickyard Cir)
  700pm Doors Open
  730pm Presentation by Joel Gratz
  
  
• Fri, Dec 9. Basalt. 
  Tentative date...standby for confirmation.

Next update

With storms in the forecast, I will now be posting daily updates. Welcome back, winter:-)

Thanks so much for reading!

JOEL GRATZ