Winter has arrived and there are multiple storms in the forecast.

Monday recap

On Monday, most northern and central mountains experienced clouds and light snow showers which shrouded the mountain peaks. Snow accumulations were very light to nothing, but flakes were in the air and it felt like a winter day. Below is the view of Aspen Highlands and Buttermilk with clouds covering the mountain peaks.

Tuesday

Tuesday should start on the dry side with clouds covering some mountains near and north of I-70.

Storm #1: Tuesday afternoon - Wednesday morning

A weak-ish system will bring snow to the northern and central mountains from later Tuesday through Wednesday morning. While the storm will not be that strong, there will be an adequate combination of storm energy and moisture to create sneaky snowfall of at least a couple of inches. There is some upside potential to this first system.

Storm #2: Wednesday afternoon - Thursday midday

This second storm will be stronger than the first and should deliver 3-6+ inches to most mountains with the best chance of snow starting in the northern mountains on Wednesday afternoon and transitioning to the central and southern mountains on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Total snow Tuesday - Thursday

These weak-to-moderately strong storms often result in surprises on both the low end and the high end of the snowfall range, and the average of many models puts most northern and central mountains in the 4-10 inch range with more uncertainty in the southern mountains.

One version of the OpenSnow high-resolution model shows snow for most mountains.

Another version of the OpenSnow high-resolution model shows more snow for the I-70 and central mountains with a bit less to the north and south.

And the CAIC high-resolution model is a bit more excited for snow across all mountains, favoring the northern mountains.

A slight change to the track of the storm energy drifting over Colorado can make the difference between 4 and 10 inches of snow and which mountains are favored, and even one day in advance of this snow, we can't make a confident forecast about the exact track of this storm energy. No matter, we'll see more snow this week and that's a good thing, and let's hope it's on the higher side for most mountains.

Join me in Denver on Wed, Oct 26th!

Speaking of this week, my next presentation will be on Wednesday, October 26th at the Bug Theater in Denver. Arc'teryx has generously covered the cost of the space so that 100% of the ticket price goes to support SOS Outreach, a wonderful non-profit helping youth to thrive. Tickets are $10 and include a free beer and a fresh coat of wax after the show (bring your skis/boards). The night's programming will include a talk by me with a live forecast about the upcoming storms and local tips to find powder. There will also be ski movies. Doors open at 600pm, enjoy a beer (or more:-), and we'll start around 700pm. See all the details. C'mon out and get stoked for the winter to come:-)

Following this week's storms, we'll see dry weather and a high chance for more snow next week.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday

These five days should be dry with normal-ish temperatures that are cold enough for snowmaking at night and might get a little above freezing during the day. I bet Loveland and/or Keystone could open a run during these days though I have no inside information.

Next Wednesday, Thursday

The longer-range models are now in agreement that there will be a storm that moves near or over Colorado sometime in the November 2-3 time frame.

The European model shows a strong signal for a storm.

And now the American GEFS model also shows a strong signal for a storm.

The track and shape of the storm are far from certain, so it's too early to talk about the timing of any potential snow or snow amounts, and it's entirely possible that the brunt of the storm will stay to our north or dive to our south and leave us without much or any snow. But at the least, there's a signal for a storm in the Rockies during the middle of next week and that's as much as we can hope for 8+ days in the future.

Thanks so much for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS - A few announcements are below.

Upcoming In-Person Presentations

Join me for in-person presentations this fall. These talks are fun (yes, powder science IS fun:-), and I'll discuss thoughts about the upcoming season and snow forecasting tips and tricks. Also, your attendance at many of these talks supports a local non-profit, so thank you for coming!

• Wed, Oct 26. Denver. Bug Theater (3654 Navajo St)
  - 600pm Doors Open
  - 700pm Presentation by Joel Gratz and ski films, too.
  - Tickets are $10 and 100% goes to SOS Outreach.
  - Tickets include a free beer and a fresh coat of wax after the show (bring your skis/boards)
  - More details
  
  
• Thu, Nov 3. Boulder. Neptune Mountaineering (633 S Broadway)
  - 630pm Doors Open
  - 700pm Presentation by Joel Gratz
  - Raffle tickets sold to support SOS Outreach
  
  
• Wed, Nov 9. Golden. Powder7 (880 Brickyard Cir)
  - 700pm Doors Open
  - 730pm Presentation by Joel Gratz
  
  
• Fri, Dec 9. Basalt
  - Tentative date...standby for confirmation.

Forecast Anywhere

You can now get a forecast for any location (on land) across the globe, and you can save any of these "Custom Locations" as a favorite. 

Any "Custom Location" comes with estimated 24-hour snowfall. This means that you can set a "Custom Location" for your favorite backcountry spot and get estimated snowfall and estimated snowfall history. Since most backcountry areas do not have snow measurement equipment located at that exact spot, this feature will be a useful way to get a general estimate of how much snow has fallen.

To set your first "Custom Location", make sure that you are using the latest version of our iOS or Android apps (this works on our website, too!), then go to the Map tab, tap any spot on the map, and you're on the way to creating your first "Custom Location". You can learn more about Forecast Anywhere in this short how-to article.

Being able to get the forecast and save points as "Custom Locations" means that you can use our forecast data for any place you'd like to go - for backcountry skiing, camping, or even to see how much we think it'll snow in your backyard :-) And remember that "Custom Locations" works worldwide, so if you're traveling to a spot on the globe where we don't have a resort-based forecast (we have forecasts for many spots outside the US), go ahead and set up a "Custom Location".

And the last note is that "Custom Locations" are private and no other OpenSnow users will be able to see the "Custom Locations" that you create.

Please check out this new feature and let us know what you think! 

Snow Tires

In short, snow tires are amazing (I put my own last week). If you run snow tires in the winter, I bet you swear by them, and if you don't run snow tires in the winter, yes, they are expensive, but as a friend of mine said, they are less expensive than the increased chance of getting into an accident!

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains