Friday was a sunny and warm-ish day with afternoon high temperatures reaching into the 30s at most mountains. These warmer temperatures and the February sunshine combined to create comfortable weather for making turns, comfortable weather for lounging at mid-mountain (see below), and also warm enough conditions that the snow on south-facing slopes is becoming sun affected. 

On Friday night, storm energy will move past Colorado to the north and the only impact will be slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday which should reach into the 20s to low-30s, or maybe 2-5 degrees cooler than what we saw on Saturday. Then Sunday will be a warmer day with afternoon high temperatures solidly in the 30s.

The next storm will be on Sunday night through Monday, and the good news is that all of the latest forecasts have trended toward a bit more snow due to the storm sticking together a little longer before it eventually splits apart.

Steady snow should start on Sunday night around midnight and continue through about 9:00 a.m. on Monday morning. Below are three high-resolution model forecasts for the snowfall as of 9:00 a.m. on Monday morning. All three models show roughly the same scenario with a solid 3-6 inches for most mountains (maybe less snow farther to the north and east) by the time lifts start spinning on Monday morning.

With solid agreement among the various models, we have pretty high confidence that there will be 3-6 inches of snow at a lot of mountains by Monday morning.

Then from Monday morning through Monday evening, snow showers will continue, though I have low confidence about the resulting snow totals. On Monday, we'll see a northwest flow with pieces of storm energy hanging around, temperatures that are favorable for fluffy snowflakes to form, and likely enough moisture to allow the atmosphere to create a few areas of more intense snow showers. Snow accumulation during the day on Monday could be anything from 1-3 inches to 6+ inches if a certain mountain gets lucky.

On Monday night, the storm will exit, and on its way out, the wind could blow from the northeast for a time, which could push a quick push of 3-6+ inches of snow into the southeastern mountains around Cuchara.

Following Monday's storm, we'll see dry and mostly sunny weather on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Then on Thursday, it looks more likely that we will see snow as another storm tracks close to or over Colorado from the northwest.

I still have only low-to-medium confidence about Thursday's storm as there is a range of scenarios, with the storm tracking over southwest Colorado, over the middle of the state, or staying just to our north. We'll keep an eye on this system, and at the least, a few mountains could get a few inches of snow and a little refresher for Thursday.

After that, we should go back to dry weather from about February 10-12.

Then for the week of February 13-17, there is a high chance for storminess around the western U.S., though it's still a bit too soon to lock in the forecast.

The 51 versions of the European model show a high chance for the storm on February 9, a low chance for snow early during the week of February 13-17, then a higher chance for snow later during the week of February 13-17.

And with a different outlook, below are 31 versions of the American GEFS model, which show a lower chance for the storm on February 9, a medium chance for snow early during the week of February 13-17, and then another medium chance for snow later during the week of February 13-17.

At least there are a few chances for snow in the forecast. For now, enjoy the sunshine and warm-ish temperatures this weekend.

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains