Monday delivered snow showers over the northern and central mountains. Most areas picked up a coating to at most 2-3 inches of snow. The moisture in the atmosphere on Monday was decent, but the storm energy stayed just a bit too far to our north to convert this moisture into plentiful snow. Of course, we'll take the flakes, but it was not a big event.

Now, on Tuesday morning, the national radar animation shows a lot of action to our north and west. It is this storm that will bring us snow from Tuesday night through Friday as it moves to the south and east and stalls over the Rockies.

With so much snow coming this week, I think the best way to look at the forecast is to show 12-hour snow forecast maps for each day and each night. The maps below are from our own OpenSnow high-resolution forecast model. Like any model, these forecast maps will not be perfect, but they look reasonable to me and provide a basis for us to discuss the forecast for each and each night.

Tuesday. Not much happening. The storm will be to our north and west. We should see at least partly sunny skies for most of the day.

Tuesday night. This is when the storm will get going. A wind direction from the southwest and south-southwest will generate the most snow over the southern mountains and mountains farther to the west. Also, just to add some more fun, over northeastern Colorado (the northern continental divide and the cities north of Denver), the wind direction will be from the northeast and this will generate decent snow for this area.

Wednesday. This is when most of the storm energy will move across Colorado and generate the most snow for most mountains. The wind direction from the southwest will once again generate the most snow in the southern mountains, however, the storm energy moving over the state will create snow for all mountains even where the wind direction is not favorable. In the map below, we can see snow over the eastern mountains and plains due to an ongoing wind from the east, and this east wind *might* generate 'extra' snowfall on the eastern edge of Summit County where we can see a splotch of red near and just east of Breckenridge and other nearby areas.

Wednesday Night. While most of the storm energy will move away, some will still be over Colorado, and the wind direction should blow from the west-southwest. This wind from the west-southwest should bring additional moderate to intense snow to some southern mountains, and also, some central mountains can do well with a wind from the west-southwest including Monarch, Crested Butte, and the Aspen area. This snow on Wednesday night could make Thursday morning powdery and fun.

Thursday. The snow continues. A wind from the southwest will continue to deliver snow mostly to the southern and south-central mountains. Any additional snow that falls on Thursday will be on top of the snow that fell from Tuesday night to Wednesday night and will make Thursday's conditions even better.

Thursday night. The snow will continue. The map below is similar to Thursday's map because a wind from the southwest will continue to deliver snow, mostly to the southern mountains, south-central mountains, and areas farther to the west.

Friday. More snow and a similar forecast to the previous 12-24 hours. Mountains farther to the south and west will be favored due to a southwest wind.

Friday night. The storm ends and we should see drier weather.

Storm Summary. The most snow will fall from Tuesday night to Wednesday and the southern mountains should be deep on Wednesday with 1-2 feet of snow. And, with snow continuing from Wednesday night through Friday, powder days on Thursday and Friday are likely as well and could be even deeper and softer. Total snowfall from Tuesday night to Friday should be 20-40 inches in the southern mountains, 12-30 inches in the central mountains, and 6-12 inches in the northern mountains.

With all of this snow, keep in mind that travel conditions could be tough at times, especially on Wednesday, and avalanche risk will increase, so plan any backcountry travel appropriately.

You might think that the atmosphere would be done producing snow after it does so for nearly all of this week, but the atmosphere is in 'go mode' and more storms are in the forecast.

On Friday night, Saturday, and Saturday night, there will be dry weather over Colorado.

Then from Sunday midday through Monday morning, another storm will bring snow to all mountains. This storm is still a bit far away for us to discuss details, though my initial expectation is to look for a moderate event with maybe 4-10 inches for most areas, and the best powder either on Sunday's last chair or Monday's first chair.

After that, we will likely see dry weather from February 27 to about March 1, then multiple storms could bring more snow between about March 2-6 or beyond.

Below is the graphic with each horizontal line showing one of 51 versions of the European model's forecast precipitation for the next 15 days – plenty of action.

And below is the weather pattern forecast for March 1-7. The blue area over the western U.S. shows the likelihood of storminess during the first seven days of March.

What a forecast. What fun this season has been and will continue to be. I hope that you are enjoying it!

Thanks for reading!

Joel Gratz

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains