Summary

Dry on Sunday and most of Monday. Then the southern mountains will see 1-2 FEET of snow from Monday afternoon through Friday. The central and northern mountains could see lighter snow from Monday night through Wednesday, then could see times of moderate snow from Wednesday night through early next week.

 

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Details

For the upcoming week, we are going to see a weather pattern that is very typical of an El Nino winter, which means storminess in the northern Pacific Ocean near southern Alaska, high pressure and drier weather over the northern Rockies from interior Canada through Montana and Wyoming, and an active southern storm track through southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico.

I didn’t mention Colorado in this setup because we are often in between the drier weather to our north and more precipitation to our south.

Being in between the dry weather to our north and the wetter weather to our south, many January El Ninos turn out to be on the drier side for Colorado with below average snow.

However, I think we’re going to get lucky during the next 7-10 days as the moisture from the south and colder air from the north should add up to at least decent snowfall for the central and northern mountains, and perhaps heavy snow in the southern mountains.

In short, we could have experienced dry weather through the middle of January, but it appears that luck is on our side!

After dry and warmer weather on Sunday and most of Monday, a surge of moisture from the south should bring 3-6 inches of snow to the southern mountains from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Some snow could get into the central and northern mountains during this time, though I think accumulations will be light.

Then from Wednesday through Thursday, another moisture surge will bring snow to Colorado, with the heaviest amounts in the southern mountains (6-12 inches) and perhaps 2-4 inches for the central and northern mountains.

Reinforcing shots of moisture and cooler air should keep snow going from Friday through early the following week (through at least Monday 1/11), and these reinforcing shots may favor the northern or central mountains, thought I can’t rule out another shot of snow in the south as well.

In summary, the southern mountains could see 1-2 FEET of snow from Monday afternoon through the end of the week, with the best powder on Tuesday morning, Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning, and perhaps Friday or Saturday if another shot of snow does move through.

The central and northern mountains could get 8-12+ inches, mainly from Wednesday night through the following Monday 1/11. I do not see any single big powder day for this area, but multiple days of light snow could soften the base quite nicely and create good conditions by late in the week or weekend. If a stronger wave of snow does move through next weekend or early the following week, this could create a classic powder day due to a significant accumulation of snow in a short period of time, resting on a softer base created by multiple days of light snow. While the snowfall in the southern mountains is more certain, what happens in central and northern Colorado is much less certain.

I hope you have a great day on Sunday, and I’ll be back on Monday morning with an update on the likely powder days in southern Colorado and will try to offer more certainty, if possible, for the central and northern mountain forecast.

JOEL GRATZ

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)