Summary

There will be a few showers around on Tuesday, then Wednesday will be dry and Thursday will be dry and windy. Snow is likely for all mountains from Thursday night through Sunday night, and the heaviest snow will likely fall during the weekend with the deepest totals in the southern mountains and near and east of the divide. This storm should produce powder days, so keep your skis/board handy!

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Details

A few showers popped up from Monday midday through late evening and Loveland reported 0.5 inches as one of these showers passed by.

Tuesday will be similar to Monday with a few showers hanging around the state, especially from midday through early evening. There is still plenty of moisture lingering in the mountains, and in some places this moisture is in the form of low clouds hanging around the peaks. The image below is looking to the west toward the Indian Peaks, just north of Eldora, at sunrise. The low clouds are pressed up against the west side (far side) of the peaks.

Source: Wunderground.com

 

A weak storm over southern Arizona and New Mexico is the reason we still have moisture and showers on Tuesday. You can see the storm swirling in the infrared satellite image below, with some clouds pushing north into Colorado.

Source: WeatherTap.com

 

On Wednesday, we’ll lose some of the moisture and the energy from the storm to our south, so I think we’ll see plenty of sun with a low chance for an afternoon shower.

Thursday should also be dry, though as the next storm approaches Colorado, winds will become strong, blowing from the southwest, so expect gusty conditions during the afternoon and evening.

Speaking of our next storm, it should bring snow from Thursday night through Sunday night. That’s about all I know at this point as all major weather forecast models are still showing large differences in the location of the heaviest snow and when it will fall.

Here is the storm’s snow forecast from the American GFS model:

Source: WeatherBell.com

 

And here is the same forecast from the Canadian model:

Source: WeatherBell.com

 

Due to licensing, I cannot show the snow forecast from the European model, but it generally shows a forecast that splits the difference between the two graphics above.

The reason that the models are having difficulty with this storm is that it is going to move slowly and wobble around, first tracking near the four corners, then hanging to our south, and finally lifting north and east over eastern Colorado.

While all models agree on this general track and timing, the differences in the position of timing of each wobble cause the major differences in the eventual snow forecast, and we likely won’t have much confidence in the details until a day before the storm hits.

All of these caveats aside, the best forecast I can make is to expect the first shot of snow on Thursday night, somewhat quieter weather on Friday, perhaps heavier snow in the San Juans on Friday night into Saturday, and heavier snow near and east of the divide from Saturday midday through Sunday.

Total snow accumulations should be at least 6-10 inches for most mountains, with 20 inches or more in parts of the southern mountains and especially near and east of the divide, including the foothills west of Denver and likely up to near Berthoud Pass, Indian Peaks, and Rocky Mountain National Park. The Denver metro area will be on the cusp between rain and snow, and the mostly likely timing for snow should be later Saturday through Sunday. With the warmer temperatures and higher sun angle of mid April, snow accumulations at lower elevations would be most likely during the overnight hours, on grassy surfaces, and at slightly higher elevations like the edge of the foothills and along the Palmer divide (just south and east of Denver downtown).

After this storm moves to the east on Monday-ish (it could linger later), most of next week should be dry. Longer range models do show additional storms during the last 7-10 days of April, though, so we are not done with potential powder days just yet!

JOEL GRATZ

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)