Summary

The heaviest snow should fall between Thursday evening and Saturday afternoon, so Friday and Saturday should be powder days at the resorts that will still be open. Then a second storm should bring heavy snow to the southern mountains from late Saturday night through Sunday night, and since Wolf Creek is re-opening for the weekend they should have a powder day on Sunday as well. The first half of next week will be showery with dry weather during the second half of the week (roughly Wednesday through Friday). The next storm should bring snow to most mountains from next Friday afternoon through at least Mother’s Day (Sunday, May 8th). The snow … can’t stop, won’t stop!

 

Details

Before getting to the forecast, let’s take a look at where we are in terms of snowpack. The red line shows the long-term average snowpack throughout the season, and the dark blue line show this year’s snowpack. This graphic averages together the entire state of Colorado. We were right around average on April 1st, then had a rapid 10-day melt out, then returned to average with the big storm two weeks ago, then melted, and now we’re back to about average. My guess is that we will be well to the right side of the red line by the end of this weekend due to an additional 10-20 inches of snow for most mountains.

Source: USDA

 

The current satellite animation shows a storm to our west with a recognizable counter-clockwise swirl pushing moisture toward Colorado from the southwest. If you look closely, you’ll actually be able to see two areas of counter-clockwise swirl: One in northwestern Utah and another over northwestern Arizona. Since this storm is somewhat convoluted with multiple areas of spin, the models are having a hard time with its forecast and I have only low to moderate confidence in the snow prediction for the next 1-3 days. Basically, there are going to be some surprises. I’ll get to all of that in a second.

Source: WeatherTap.com

 

On Thursday morning around 8am, radar shows an area of precipitation just east of the Sangre de Cristo mountains (lower right) and another area of precipitation over far western Colorado.

Source: WeatherTap.com

 

The area of precipitation over western Colorado is hitting the Grand Mesa as shown in this webcam image from the top of the Grand Mesa, just south of Powderhorn Ski Area.

Source: CDOT

 

Ok, enough about what’s going on right now, let’s get to the forecast and when and where I think you’ll see powder days.

The “where” is a tricky part because if you’re looking to ski inbounds, your options are limited. The resorts that are still open full-time include Abasin, Loveland, and Mary Jane (part of Winter Park). Aspen Highlands just announced that in addition to being open this Saturday and Sunday, they will also open this Friday (April 29th) due to the anticipated snow. Kudos to them for adjusting their schedule based on the forecast! Also, I just heard that Wolf Creek will also re-open this Saturday and Sunday due to snow that’s already fallen and the forecast for more snow, and if things come together, I think the forecast looks good enough for possible powder at Wolf on both Saturday and Sunday. And of course, if you’re heading into the backcountry, the base is pretty deep and you’ll find enjoyable powder across the state. Be safe and have fun!

For the snow details, the upcoming storm will bring the heaviest snow in two phases.

Phase one will dump snow from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning for nearly all mountains. The latest models have trended slower and further south with this storm. This trend to slow down the storm and move it further south is normal with cut-off storms that track toward Colorado from the southwest, so I will bite on the latest model forecasts. These latest forecasts lower snow totals a bit on Thursday night and bring more snow during the day on Friday, Friday night, and even the first half of Saturday. Even with this shift in the forecast, I think both Friday and Saturday will be good days to be on the hill, and I might give the edge to Friday afternoon and Saturday morning as the best time to find deep, fresh snow. One big caveat: I bet the models will continue to shift their forecast right up until the last minute, and with these convoluted, slow-moving storms, there are always surprises as bands of snow or heavier cells can randomly hit certain mountain areas and bring surprisingly high snow amounts. Average snow amounts from Thursday night through Saturday afternoon should be in the 10-20 inch range, though I have lower confidence in the exact timing of the snow and the eventual numbers than I usually do just 1 day before the storm hits. Be ready to adjust plans on the fly!

Phase two of the storm will dump snow from Saturday night through Sunday night for the southern mountains. Wolf Creek will likely have the best snow on Sunday as there should be powder in the morning from some snow on Saturday night and flakes will fall through the day (total from phase two = 10+ inches?!). This second phase of the storm will mainly impact the southern mountains with lighter showers in central and northern Colorado.

Total snowfall through Sunday morning, from a blend of models, looks like the graphic below. Most mountains will see 10-20 inches, and higher elevations surrounding the Denver metro area should see accumulating snow, especially above about 6,000 feet. With the higher sun angle of late April, I don’t think the roads in Denver proper will be too bad (likely just wet), but higher elevations to the southeast, south, southwest, west, and northwest of Denver should see more snow with likely impacts on the roads in the foothills.

Source: WeatherBell.com

 

This weekend’s snow will finally dissipate by Monday and Tuesday as we’ll see cool air and some showers both days but only light snow accumulations. Next Wednesday and Thursday will be warmer and dry, and Friday should be dry for most of the state. Then another storm from the southwest should hit Colorado with snow starting next Friday afternoon or night and continuing through about Mother’s Day, May 8th.

The snow … Can’t Stop, Won’t Stop!

Go get some pow, and thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

 

PS - I will be giving a talk during the evening of Wednesday, May 4th at the Silverthorne Pavilion in Summit County. This will be a part of the “State of the River” event and should be a great evening covering water and snow information. My talk specifically will revisit the season-long forecast for this past season and look ahead to next season, provide tips on forecasting snow around Summit County, and I’ll also discuss the history of the business side of OpenSnow. Finally, I’ll chat a bit about what we’re up to this summer with a mobile app focused on lightning prediction for hikers. Hope to see you there, and click here for more details: http://opsw.co/stateofriver

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton, Durango, Wolf Creek (Telluride and Silverton are on the northern side of the southern mountains)