Colorado Daily Snow
By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 7 years ago September 28, 2016
Significant snow possible in early October
Summary
The first week of October will bring cooler air to Colorado as multiple storms push through the western United States. There is a good chance that all mountains will see snow, and there is a decent chance that some mountains will see significant snow, perhaps 10 inches or more. Bring on winter!
Details
As a quick reminder, we had snow in Colorado on Friday, September 23rd.
It was enough snow for a few (rocky, grassy) turns at Silverton!
And across the state, the combination of snow at the higher elevations and golden aspen leaves at the mid elevations made for gorgeous scenes, like this one at Beaver Creek (photo: Bob Wilner).
After a few perfect, blue-sky days from September 25-28th, we’re going to see a change in the weather for the rest of the week.
Look for showers on Thursday Sep 29 through
Then the weather fun will begin during the first full week of October!
The temperature outlook for October 5-11 shows below average temperatures for most of the western US, and this cool air could allow us to see our first significant snow storm of the season.
A cold front will likely hit Colorado sometime between Monday midday and Tuesday midday (October 3-4). After the cold front moves through, the stage will be set for multiple storms to bring snow through the rest of the week.
How much snow and which mountains will get the most?
That’s tough to know as the storm is still many days away.
Recent forecasts from the American GFS and European model show 10+ inches of snow for many mountains between Tuesday and Friday. Here is the GFS model:
Remember, though, that it’s unwise to lock into one model’s forecast for a storm that is many days away. Instead, it’s best to look at multiple versions of models to understand the range of possibilities.
The European model has an ensemble system that runs 51 versions of the model, which produces 51 different forecasts. When we look at the ensemble, our expectations for next week’s snowfall are tempered a bit.
The blue bars below show the Europeans model’s snow forecast for Berthoud Pass, and you can see a snow forecast of 12 inches during the middle of next week. However, this is the snow forecast from just 1 of the 51 versions of the model.
The green bars show the average of all 51 versions of the model, and this average yields just 3-4 inches of snow at Berthoud Pass. So "a couple of inches of snow" is the most responsible forecast to make right now, but there is upside potential with this system.
While it’s nearly impossible to accurately forecast snow totals this far in advance of a storm, we can be rather sure that temperatures will be much cooler next week and most mountains will see at least some snow, so that’s all good news. And if the storm tracks just right, some mountains, especially in the north, might be able to snag more than a foot of snow. Let’s hope!
I’ll leave you with one more interesting aspect about next week’s storm - it’s strength and track will impact the track of a potentially significant hurricane that could hit the US later next week.
Hurricane Matthew will likely form in the next few days, and it will likely track north toward the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, or the east coast. Exactly where the hurricane tracks will depend on the strength and speed of next week’s snow storm that will move across Colorado. Weather … it’s all connected!
And now, it’s announcement time!
Heli Ski Event in Denver on October 6 - Movie, Beer, and Food
Join me in Denver on Thursday, October 6th to learn more about heli-skiing with Canadian Mountain Holidays (CMH). I'll talk about my previous trips with CMH, they will show a premiere of their new short film, and free beer and food will be served! This is always a fun event, so if you're interested in taking a
New Hiking Weather App!
Last week, we launched “OpenSummit”, a new iPhone app that provides hourly forecasts for each
Did you know that you can get more from OpenSnow?
If you’re looking for a way to support OpenSnow and get useful additional insight this winter, consider signing up for the All-Access Pass.
This pass gives you access to:
- 10-day forecasts
- Custom alerts to know about upcoming powder days
- Time-lapse webcams for tracking exactly when fresh snow has fallen
- Email delivery of the Colorado Daily Snow as soon as it’s published
All of this costs just $19 for one full year (365 days) and helps to support OpenSnow so that we can spend money and time to further improve our website and mobile apps.
I’d love to count you as an All-Access member!
Thanks for reading and check back for my next post on Friday, September 30th!
JOEL GRATZ
About Our Forecaster
Joel Gratz
Founding Meteorologist
Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.
Free OpenSnow App
