Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 7 years ago November 14, 2016

Thursday snow plus other good news

Summary

Monday through Wednesday will be dry and mostly sunny, then a strong storm will bring snow to all mountains from Thursday through Friday morning. Another storm (or two) is possible during the week of Thanksgiving.

Short Term Forecast

On Sunday morning, a few snow squalls hit the northern mountains, roughly near and north of I-70 and east of Vail Pass and Steamboat. Here was the scene on Berthoud Pass.

It was nice to see a few flakes, thanks to a storm passing well to our northeast, but there was no significant accumulation. The only natural snow on most mountains is at the highest elevations and on north-facing terrain.

It’s not just Colorado that is struggling to build a base. Here is a look at the snowpack compared to average across the western US. The numbers show the actual percentage. Not a good look.

The good news is that temperatures have dropped a few degrees compared to last week, so there was plenty of time to make snow during the last few nights. And machine-made snow is the only snow we are going to see for the next three days as Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be dry.

That will change on Thursday when a cold and strong storm hits Colorado from the west. You can see the storm approach, hit, and then move away from us in the forecast below. The blue colors represent the storm.

Ahead of the storm, winds will be gusty on Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

Then I think most mountains will see snow start on Thursday morning or midday, and the snow should continue in the central and northern mountains until mid-morning on Friday. The sun should return for most areas on Friday afternoon, but temperatures will stay chilly and Friday will feel like a winter day.

The range of snow forecasts for the central mountains, around Aspen, is about 3-13 inches, with an average of 8 inches. This graphic is from the University of Utah and illustrates the possible accumulations forecasted by 20 versions of the American GFS and Canadian models.

Most mountains should see about 3-6 or 4-8 inches, though of course, the range could be larger as you can see in the graphic above. I think the central and northern mountains will see the highest amounts, while the southern mountains will likely get a bit less.

Two things that will influence snowfall amounts will be convection and post-frontal orographics.

Convection describes the process where warm air rises and can create brief, heavy precipitation (like a summer thunderstorm). On Thursday, we will likely experience some convection as the storm moves across Colorado. This means that some mountains could experience brief periods of heavy snow (whiteout conditions) which could quickly increase their snow accumulation by a few inches. Other mountains, if they miss these heavier snow squalls, could get a few inches less.

Post-front orographics describes what happens after the cold air moves in, and this cold air and moisture is pushed into mountains from the west and northwest and forced to rise. This is how we get a lot of our snow in Colorado. We should see 6-12 hours of potential orographic snow on Thursday afternoon, evening, and Friday morning. We still don’t know exactly what the wind direction will be (from the west? northwest? in between?), and the wind direction will determine which mountains will be able to pick up a few more inches of snow during this time.

This storm won’t just bring snow to Colorado. Most mountains across the west will see snow this week.

After the snow on Thursday into Friday morning, Friday afternoon through Sunday should be dry and sunny. If you’re planning to ski/ride on Friday, prepare for a winter-like feel to the air. Fresh snow on the ground with temperatures in the teens and 20s. Nice to have you back, winter!

Extended Forecast

The other good news about Thursday’s storm, aside from the snowfall, is the cold air. Temperatures will drop about 15-20 degrees.

The coldest air will be around on Thursday and Friday, and will moderate some next weekend.

Overall, this storm will transition us into a cooler regime which should help snowmaking efforts across the state.

The outlook for Thanksgiving week shows the potential for 1-2 more storms, but I don’t have confidence in the details. We could see some snow in the southern mountains on Tuesday/Wednesday, and/or the entire state could see snow from a second storm around Thanksgiving Day. If you’re driving across Colorado to see family and friends on Thanksgiving week, I’d make sure you have your snow tires installed. We haven’t needed snow tires very much this season, but I’m putting mine on, just in case, because winter if finally arriving and there is a likelihood that I'll encounter some snow.

Beyond Thanksgiving week, the longer-range models still show a favorable pattern across the western US and Canada with the potential for a storm every few days. Of course, we can’t forecast the exact timing and track of storms more than about one week away, so I cannot tell you if Colorado will get lots of snow at the end of November and early December. But the overall pattern is more favorable for us to see cold air and snow, and that’s all I can hope for when looking at 15-day (and longer) forecasts.

For those of you concerned about upcoming trips, Thanksgiving should offer skiing at most mountains that are scheduled to be open, but terrain will be limited. For Christmas and late December, I have no idea. If we get a couple big storms in early December with cold temperatures, the skiing in late December could be fantastic. If we don’t get early-December storms, than we may not have a ton of terrain open during the holidays. There’s no way to know right now.

Stay tuned and thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

I will be giving a talk at Tin Shed Sports at 112 E 2nd St. in Nederland on Thursday, November 17th. Come at 630pm to eat tacos (their food is great!) and have a beer, then I’ll start my talk at 700pm. We’ll chat about this week's storm, the outlook through early December, and a few thoughts on the season. More event info: https://www.facebook.com/events/1711488562505488/ and link to Tin Shed Sports: http://www.tinshedsports.com/

Also, follow the Colorado Daily Snow on Facebook and follow me personally on Twitter @gratzo and on Instagram @gratzo.

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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