The bluebird and warm weather will continue on Sunday, Monday, and most of Tuesday. Our above-average snowpack is melting and has just crossed the “average” mark.

The first change in our weather will occur on Tuesday night and Wednesday as a storm moves across the northern mountains. Elevations over 10,000 feet might see a few inches of snow during this time.

Then a stronger storm should bring snow sometime between Thursday and Saturday. The European and Canadian models generally agree that the most precipitation will fall near and east of the divide on Friday. The American GFS model isn’t so sure about this scenario and brings more snow to all of the northern mountains.

Below is a graphic showing the 51 versions of the European ensemble model for Rocky Mountain National Park, near and east of the divide. Each horizontal line represents the total precipitation forecast from each of the 51 versions. About 85% of the versions show more than 0.5 inches of precipitation (about 5 inches of snow) and about 60% of the versions show more than 1.0 inches of precipitation (about 10 inches of snow).

When the ensemble forecast shows a high probability for significant precipitation about 5 days away, this gives me a reasonable amount of confidence that the mountains near and east of the divide should see a good amount of snow. However, as we saw during the storm on April Fools day, the actual snow amount can be outside the expected range of the ensemble forecast.

If you’re looking for powder, keep your eye on Friday-day or Saturday morning at elevations over 9,000 feet near and east of the divide in the northern mountains.

Also, below is a note about Cuchara Mountain. I first wrote about this on Friday and I’ll leave this up through Monday morning because I want a lot of people to see it.

Here is the location of Cuchara Mountain, in the south-eastern mountains:

https://goo.gl/maps/Wi9m3c4j13K2

Cuchara Mountain is no longer in operation, but a local group is raising money to purchase the land and reinvigorate the area for winter skiing, skinning, and tubing, as well as summer music festivals and education.

Here is a picture of the mountain with its mid-winter coat. Looks like fun, local skiing!

More about the project:

A group of residents in Cuchara, Colorado have started a major project here in Huerfano County, near the Spanish Peaks, in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  We are trying to rehabilitate the Cuchara Mountain Resort (imagine Eldora abandoned) and revive it as a public county park with an emphasis on providing both summer and winter outdoor recreational activities.

Huerfano County is the second poorest county in the state, with little industry or job opportunities.  Part of our goal is to bring tourists and outdoor recreation enthusiasts to our part of the state, and specifically our part of Huerfano County.  The Cuchara Foundation, a local 501(c)3 charitable organization, is raising the money to pay off the land for the county. Once that is accomplished, the Foundation will then begin raising money to rehabilitate the equipment and provide the outdoor recreation we all want. 

Our current assets include a double chair lift on the park property, access to two additional lifts on national forest land, a building that could be used as a lodge/ticket office/ski rental office, two large maintenance buildings, snow making infrastructure, and a partially torn-down building which we hope to turn into a music stage.  Our park is about 50 acres and is also a bridge to the San Isabel National Forest, which is perfect for uphill/backcountry skiing.

We think our little gem of a park will be perfect for skiing, sledding, tubing, mountain biking, music festivals, as well as educational programs focused on the environment, the natural world, and outdoor recreation.

We are actively fundraising. We’ve raised almost $84,000 of the needed $150,000 to purchase the land, so we are more than halfway there. Our deadline for payment is November 2017.

I think this is a fantastic project and OpenSnow just donated money in support of it. To donate, you can send a check to the Cuchara Foundation, Mountain Park Fund, 137 Cuchara Avenue East, Cuchara, CO 81055. Or you can donate online: https://www.facebook.com/donate/10211152536466584/

For more pictures and information, go here:

http://www.cucharavillage.com/

Have a great Sunday!

JOEL GRATZ