On Monday evening, a band of snow hit the northern mountains and another area of snow hit the extreme southern mountains.

This map shows the increase in snow water equivalent (SWE) on Monday night. SWE is what you'd measure if you melted the new snow into water. Multiply by about 10 to estimate snowfall in inches.

These are the highest snowfall measurements from Monday night. The data is a mix of official reports, SNOTEL stations, and snow stake cameras.

Rocky Mountain National Park - 4-6"

Wolf Creek - 2-5"

Winter Park - 4"

Steamboat - 4"

Arapahoe Basin - 2"

Loveland - 1-2"

The highest storm totals so far, from Saturday through Tuesday morning, look like this. The most snow has fallen in the northern mountains with much lighter accumulations elsewhere.

Rocky Mountain National Park - 18"

Steamboat - 12"

Loveland - 11"

Arapahoe Basin - 7"

I think we'll see a lull in the snow for part of the day on Tuesday, then the last round of snow will move through on Tuesday night.

While there is still not a lot of disagreement between the models concerning accumulations on Tuesday night, most models indicate somewhere in the 1-4 inch range.

Like pow? You should find a little bit at Loveland and Abasin on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, and the base in the backcountry in the far northern mountains is starting to grow, though it's still thin in many spots.

Unfortunately, I do not have good news about the next 10-15 days.

After the snow ends on Wednesday morning, I only see two chances for flakes in the following 10 days, and those chances are for just a few flakes, not big storms. Expect perhaps a dusting to a few inches in the central and northern mountains on Saturday and early next week.

The weather pattern is focusing most of the cold air and snow well to our northwest, over Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, British Columbia, and Alberta.

To see this, here is the forecast for temperatures compared to the average for 5-day chunks going out to 15 days.

These forecast maps, from http://wx.graphics, show the average forecast from 51 versions of the European model. Even though forecast accuracy is pretty low out to 10-15 days, we can still have some trust that the trend in the model toward warmer and drier weather is likely accurate.

Wrapping this together, I do not see any significant storms out to about November 15th, and this drier period could extend further. I am searching the longer-range models for signs of colder air and consistent snow, and I'll let you know when I find them.

While this drier and warmer weather may lead to ski areas opening with very limited terrain, or delaying their opening, it is not the time to panic just yet.

All we need is a few weeks of consistent cold and snow and we're in business, and there's still plenty of time for the pattern to change.

If we get to early December, and the pattern has not changed AND we don't see a stormy forecast through mid December, then I'll start panic a little bit.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Colorado Forecast Page → https://opensnow.com/state/co

Talk in Golden on Wednesday, November 8th
- Bent Gate Mountaineering, 1313 Washington Ave, Golden, CO 80401
- My talk will start at 600pm
- More details: https://www.facebook.com/events/1209665705844183/

Talk in Colorado Springs on Wednesday, November 15th.
- Bristol Brewing, 1604 S Cascade Ave, Colorado Springs, CO 80905
- My talk will start at 630pm
- Hosted by The Mountain Chalet, a local outdoors shop

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains