Colorado Daily Snow

We need some luck

Summary

Colorado will be on the southern edge of the storm track between now and about Thanksgiving. Most of the heaviest snow will stay to our north and west, and with some luck, one or two storms will drop a bit further south and bring more snow to Colorado. It appears that the next reasonable chance for colder air and a few inches of snow will be around November 17th.

Warren Miller’s 68th Film

Travel the globe, by land, air, and sea, exploring the ties that bind ski culture in Volkswagen presents Warren Miller’s Line of Descent. Catch shows in Colorado November 3rd through January 6th. It’s tradition: http://opsw.co/2y2iXuM

Short Term Forecast

Before getting to the forecast, I wanted to post this amazing video from November 3rd, showing a timelapse of low clouds over Colorado Springs. You can clearly see how the atmosphere behaves as a fluid with air sloshing and moving in waves. If you do not see the video below, click here:

https://www.facebook.com/LarsLeberPhotography/videos/1710876648969019/

Now, on Saturday, November 11, most of Colorado will stay dry as a weak storm delivers a few clouds and flurries to the mountains near and north of I-70 during the afternoon. The northern mountains received the most snow from the storm earlier this week, and there is natural snow cover on the northern-facing slopes.

From Sunday through early next week, most mountains will see dry weather most of the time. Temperatures at night should be cold enough for snowmaking, but without a long stretch of very cold weather, I doubt we will see a lot more open terrain.

Extended Forecast

Colorado will stay on the southern edge of the storm track for the foreseeable future, which takes us out to about Thanksgiving.

For the next 10 days, the average of many versions of the American model and the Canadian model clearly show that while northern and central Colorado may get some snow, the deepest accumulations will be to our north and west (graphic from the University of Utah).

One of these systems could drop far enough south to bring a shot of colder air and moderate snowfall sometime around next Friday, November 17th. I am not promising a big storm, but with models trending toward at least some snowfall, I am hopeful that we'll see flakes.

After that, the next chance for snow will be around November 21st. But we'll need some luck.

At first glance, it looks like we will see a significant storm on November 20th-21st. This is one version of the European model, and the blue and green areas show storminess and cold air.

However, the map below shows an average forecast from 51 versions of the European model. The average across 51 versions of the model show warmer and drier weather over much of the western US.

It is scientifically irresponsible to base our forecast on just one version of one model, especially when we're looking out 10+ days into the future.

So, all I can say now is that while the weather pattern is forecast to keep most of the storms north and west of Colorado, if we get lucky and one of these systems dives south, we could get significant snow, and the best chance of this happening will be around November 17 and November 21st.

It's still very early in the season, so no need to panic about a rather dry forecast. The snow will come, eventually. I'll keep you posted!

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

Colorado Forecast Page https://opensnow.com/state/co

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I will be at an event in Lakewood (near Denver) on Saturday, November 11th
- Simms Steakhouse, 11911 W 6th Ave, Golden, CO 80401
- From 600pm - 800pm
- The event is a meet & greet with Stellar Heliskiing out of British Columbia
- I've never skied with Stellar Heliskiing
- I am NOT giving a talk ... I am going to learn about a place that's new to me and to hang out

- If you're curious about Stellar, come on out and say hi & please RSVP to [email protected]

- For background, I have been lucky enough to heliski at three of CMH's lodges and plan to ski at Kingfisher Heliskiing and Great Northern Cat Skiing this season, all in British Columbia ... if you want my advice on any of these operations or British Columbia in general, email me at [email protected] and I am happy to share what I know.

I am giving a talk Colorado Springs on Wednesday, November 15th.
- Bristol Brewing, 1604 S Cascade Ave, Colorado Springs, CO 80905
- My talk will start at 630pm
- Hosted by The Mountain Chalet, a local outdoors shop

I am giving a talk in Denver on Thursday, November 16th.
- Denver Athletic Club, 1325 Glenarm Street, Denver, CO  80204 (Centennial Room, 3rd floor)
- Doors open at 600pm, talk starts around 630pm
- $5 at the door pays for a beer and snacks, cash bar as well
- Parking available in the DAC garage for $5

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

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