I like what I am seeing for the pattern across Europe over the next two weeks. A small storm will bring decent snow to the Alps Monday through Wednesday and will be followed by a bigger storm cycle starting next weekend. The models haven't resolved all the details with that setup, but it's looking like a solid stretch with several days of accumulating snow. 

The first storm arrives on Monday from the west, initially favoring the western Alps. Snow levels will start high, around 2100 m, but will fall around 1200 m Tuesday morning. Expect totals in the 5 - 15 cm range, with perhaps up to 25 cm in Valle d'Aosta and the northwest-facing areas of the central Swiss Alps. Winds will be out of the southwest to start but will quickly switch to the northwest as the cold front moves through. 

Below are the latest forecasts from the European model as well as the high-resolution WRF model.

You can see some higher totals of 25+ cm in some of the higher elevation locations in the northern French, central Swiss, and western Austrian Alps. Given the northwest flow during most of this storm those are likely locations for the snow totals to exceed the 5 - 15 cm range mentioned above.

This storm will linger through Wednesday morning in the Austrian Alps but should be wrapped up by Wednesday afternoon. The upper-level low responsible for this storm will split and drop south of the Alps. It should stay far enough west to limit any impacts in the Alps, but the Pyrenees could see some light rain/snow. 

The rest of Wednesday and Thursday should stay dry as the ridge to the southwest pushes into the Alps. It won't stick around long, though, as the next storm arrives on Thursday night. This storm will come from the Northwest and feature a strong cold front. However, we will see a period of precipitation prior to the arrival of the front, where snow levels will be in the 1500 - 1800 m range before falling to around 600 - 900 m on Saturday night. So, we may see some rain at resort bases early in this storm. 

We should see the strongest period of snow Saturday through Sunday during the passage of the cold front, followed by more showery conditions through the early part of the week. The models then start to diverge but additional storms are possible next week. We should remain showery for much of the week as the upper-level low responsible for this storm moves south of the Alps and churns in place for most of the week.

The models show another strong storm next week, this time dropping down from the north, but the timing is not clear. It could come as early as Wednesday or as late as Friday. The ensembles favor this storm arriving later in the week. 

My next post will be on Sunday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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