In my last post I mentioned a cut-off low developing over the western Alps later this week, but that we need to watch where it sets up for potential impacts. Over the last 48 hours, the models have trended farther west and south, with the storm now resembling a more traditional Retour d'est. This shifts the focus from the eastern Austrian Alps to the southwestern Alps, especially in Italy. 

The models show this storm tracking far enough west to bring a period of southwest/south-southwest winds into the southern French Alps, which would allow them to receive some decent accumulations as well. As is often the case with these storms, temperatures are cold enough for snow down to the bases but not for very low-density pow. Still, it would be great for the southern Alps to receive another big dump. 

The storm should get going on Thursday night, with the heaviest snow falling Saturday through Sunday night. Accumulations should exceed one meter in the favored Retour d'est zones, like the Cuneo, Torino, and even Valle d'Aosta regions. 

There are some questions as to the exact locations of the storm, however, so I will wait to get into more details in my next post. For now, I will share the latest depiction of how the storm will play out from the European model.

This pattern with a strong ridge over northern Europe will remain in place, and thus, more cut-off storms will be possible. With such an anomalously strong ridge in place, there isn't much room for any lows go. Rather than progressing through the region from west to east, the strong ridge stands in the way, allowing these storms to be cut off from the flow and strengthen. As long as that ridge persists over northern Europe, more storms like this will be possible. 

My next post will be on Tuesday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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