Lingering low/mid level clouds will quickly clear out on Saturday morning with sunny skies for the rest of the day and high temperatures in the low 20s above mid-mountain.

The next storm will approach from the northwest on Sunday with snow arriving during the afternoon and continuing through Sunday night. This will not be a strong storm, but models are at least coming into better agreement.

I'll stick with a forecast of 2-5 inches of snow from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Most of this snow will fall after lifts close on Sunday, so plan on heading out Monday morning to enjoy some fresh turns.

Mostly cloudy skies and colder temperatures will prevail on Monday with additional flurries possible through the day, but additional accumulations will be minimal.

After that, we're going to dry out again for a few days as the mid-week storm continues to trend weaker and farther east and now looks like it may miss Jackson Hole entirely. There's a chance we could see light snow showers or flurries Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but I'm not counting on it at this point. 

In the 7-10 day range, attention turns to a possible storm next Saturday, January 23rd. Confidence is low in how this may play out for Jackson as the storm is projected to split west of here, and when exactly the split occurs and where the northern and southern pieces of energy track in relation to Jackson are uncertain.

Depending on how the details work out, this could be a respectable snow event for Jackson, or the split could lead to moisture/energy and snowfall missing us almost entirely. 

After the 23rd, the storm track will shift west and south of the Tetons for a few days, meaning we'll be back into a waiting game once again.

However, the 10-15 day range continues to look more favorable with each ensuing model run as the storm track is expected to lift north a bit and become more progressive, which could lead to stronger and more frequent storms from January 26th-31st. 

This January dry spell is starting to do a number on our snowpack relative to average. We're now down to 89% of average snowpack, which isn't awful, but that value will continue to go down over the next 7-10 days until we get into a pattern of more consistent snowfall. 

Hopefully, the pattern projected for late January comes to fruition and we can see more consistent storms heading into February as well – long-range signals for February are actually looking favorable, but we've been burned by the 15+ day outlooks before.

A bit of perspective – the only year in the last 5 years that had a lower snow depth on January 16th was in 2019 (mostly due to a dry Dec, skiing conditions were better in Jan of that year), but we ended up breaking a record for February snowfall that year with 200 inches. So things can always change for the better. 

Thanks for reading and check back each morning for daily forecasts!

ALAN SMITH

Snow conditions as of Saturday morning:

New Snow – Past 24 Hours:
* Trace (Upper Mountain), Trace since lifts closed
* Trace (Mid Mountain)
* Trace (Base Area)

New Snow – Past 48 Hours:
* Trace (Upper Mountain)
* Trace (Mid Mountain)
* Trace (Base Area)

Base Depth:
* 62-63" Upper Mountain (9,580 ft.)
* 49" Mid Mountain (8,180 ft.)
* 19" Base Area (6,510 ft.)

Terrain:
* Lifts Open – 13 / 13
* Trails Open – 108 / 133
* Latest Update

Snowpack compared to 1974-2020 average:
* 89% of average

OpenSnow Forecast Data Update

On Tuesday (1/12), we began updating the automated forecasts on OpenSnow with a proprietary blend of data from the GFS (American), GDPS (Canadian), and ECMWF (European) weather models.

Previously, we combined information from our local forecasters, the National Weather Service (NOAA), and data from the ECMWF (European) weather model. This method only provided hourly data for the United States and relied on a single model to produce our snow forecasts for the next 10 days.

Why is this new forecast data better than the old forecast data? The benefits include:

• Blending multiple global models increases accuracy and confidence in the forecast.
• Hourly data for any location in the world.
• Proprietary snow-to-liquid calculation to improve accuracy, especially in colder environments.
• Improved method for calculating the snow level (elevation that separates rain from snow) to provide a more realistic forecast, especially at the beginning of storms and during times of intense snowfall.
• Ability to create a forecast for any location and elevation to ensure that we are forecasting conditions on the mountain and not for a nearby town.

We also plan to add even more global and high-resolution models into our proprietary forecast blend over time. Our goal is to create the most accurate snow forecast and we're just getting started.

The data can be viewed as hourly forecasts for the next 5 days and daily forecasts for the next 10 days. Available data includes:

• Chance of Precipitation
• Day & Night Snow Forecast
• Day & Night Snow Level
• Daily High & Low Temperature
• Hourly Temperature
• Hourly Wind Speed
• Hourly Wind Gust
• Hourly Cloud Cover %

This new blend of forecast data is available on OpenSnow for over 2,000 locations around the world and we are adding new locations every day.

Jackson Hole → OpenSnow.com/location/jacksonhole
Explore Other Locations → OpenSnow.com/explore