Forecast for Thursday:

Jackson Hole's mid to upper mountain stations are reporting an inch of new snow on Thursday morning, which presumably fell Wednesday morning as a weak storm was exiting the region.

Cloud cover decreased overnight and we will see a sunny day on Thursday with warmer air aloft arriving.

Check out the sunrise from across the region on Thursday morning, which is spectacular on both sides of the Tetons:

Temperatures at mid to upper mountain locations are in the upper single digits to low teens on Thursday morning, but will rise into the mid-20s on Thursday afternoon (ski area summits will be slightly colder than this). Winds above 9,000 feet will be out of the west at 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph.

Valley temperatures are starting out below zero on Thursday morning and will only reach the upper teens for a high on Thursday afternoon as an inversion remains in place. This is still warmer than recent days, however, especially with more solar radiation compared to Wednesday.

Still, if you're seeking warmer temperatures then head uphill above the inversion layer. 

Also, inversions mix out more easily in Teton Valley, so I'm expecting highs to reach the upper 20s to low 30s there.

Forecast for Friday to Saturday:

Friday morning will start out with similar conditions compared to Thursday morning, though it will likely be even milder at the mid to upper elevations while the valley will start out below zero again.

Clouds will be on the increase on Friday afternoon as a weak storm approaches, and winds will also become stronger out of the southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph above 9,000 feet.

Highs on Friday afternoon will reach the upper 20s to near 30 at 9,000 feet and areas around 7,000-8,000 feet could flirt with the freezing mark. JH Valley temperatures are a tough call as an inversion may stay in place for most of the day but will eventually mix out by the late afternoon or early evening.

It could be one of those days where JH Valley temps stay in the teens through the afternoon before rising into the 30s in the evening once the inversion erodes – though depending on winds, this could occur by late in the day or in the evening. 

Teton Valley will see the inversion mix out earlier in the afternoon, however, with highs reaching the mid 30s.

Snow showers will develop during the overnight hours as moisture arrives from the west/southwest, but it's looking like a minor event at this point. I suspect higher elevations will pick up an inch or two of new snow on Friday night-Saturday morning with a drying trend on Saturday afternoon.

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy on Saturday afternoon with highs in the low 20s at 9,000 feet. Winds on Saturday will be out of the west/southwest at 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph above 9,000 feet.

Highs in the valley will reach the mid 30s on Saturday afternoon, which will feel very warm after the cold snap earlier this week. 

Forecast for Sunday to Monday:

Sunday will start out dry, then a relatively stronger storm will impact the Tetons from Sunday afternoon through Monday. My overall thinking remains the same as recent days with the storm gradually splitting apart as it moves across the Intermountain West, but with enough moisture and energy reaching the Tetons to result in a decent snow event.

Snow will likely begin sometime on Sunday afternoon with most of the accumulating snow happening during the overnight hours on Sunday night. This will be a medium-density snow event but colder air arriving at the onset will result in a "right-side-up" event with snow density decreasing over time.

I'll go with an early snow forecast of 3-6 inches for the Tetons above 8,000 feet from Sunday afternoon through first thing Monday morning, and 1-2 inches in the valleys.

On Monday, we should see lingering moisture in a northwest flow on the backside of the storm which could result in additional snow showers. Most areas should see only light additional accumulations, but I would keep an eye on Targhee who could potentially see some decent backside accumulations as they tend to be favored in northwest flow patterns when orographics (terrain-enhanced lift) kick in. 

In terms of skiing conditions, I would target Monday morning to catch freshies as most of the action will be happening after lifts stop spinning on Sunday afternoon. 

Outlook for Tuesday (Feb 7) to Thursday (Feb 9):

We will be on the southern fringe of the storm track during this period, with possibilities ranging from little to no snow to frequent shots of moderate snowfall. 

Most models have trended a bit further north in the storm track during this time with limited moisture reaching the Tetons, but the European Model still hangs onto a more southerly storm track with more significant moisture reaching the Tetons.

Although it's an outlier right now, the European Model has the best track record of all weather models in the medium range, so that gives us at least a little bit of hope to hang onto for now. Stay tuned as models should eventually come into better agreement as we get closer. 

Outlook for February 10th-16th:

High pressure is expected to briefly build in late next week, likely around the Friday (Feb 10) to Saturday (Feb 11) timeframe.

After that, high pressure should start to break down around Sunday (Feb 12) with a trough of low pressure becoming the dominant feature across the Western U.S.

While we always prefer to see a trough rather than a ridge across the Western U.S. However, I'm still expecting the pattern to favor storms weakening as they reach the West Coast and then diving southward toward the Four Corners region through mid-month, with the Tetons seeing glancing blows. Temperatures would likely be below average in this pattern as well.

Keep in mind, we are 10+ days out, so a lot can still change. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (Feb 3).

ALAN SMITH

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