Forecast for Tuesday:

Lingering moisture on the backside of Sunday night's storm only contributed to light and spotty snow amounts during the day on Monday with Jackson Hole picking up another 1-3 inches while Targhee did not receive any additional accumulations.

We will see a break in the action between storms on Tuesday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Clouds are hovering over the Teton Range on Tuesday AM so there will be limited visibility at times, but overall we should see a gradual decrease in cloud cover by Tuesday afternoon.

Highs on Tuesday will reach the low 20s at 9,000 feet with west/northwest winds at 10-15 mph and gusts to 20-25 mph. Highs will reach the mid 30s in the valleys.

Forecast for Tuesday Night to Wednesday Night:

The next storm will slide in from the west/northwest on late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This storm has trended a bit weaker since my last post with the main "driver" of snowfall being a cold front that will move through mid-morning Wednesday.

We will see some light snow develop ahead of the cold front on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, but I'm not expecting much to show up on Wednesday's 5am reports. A band of moderate to heavy snow will develop as the cold front moves through on Wednesday morning, followed by additional snow showers on Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

The atmosphere will become unstable behind the front on Wednesday afternoon, which will contribute to backside snow showers activity. However, I'm seeing some hints of less moisture to work with behind the front than previously expected. Therefore, I'm less optimistic that we will see heavy afternoon snow showers behind the front, though I wouldn't rule it out either. 

Lingering snow showers will taper off sometime on Wednesday evening with decreasing clouds expected later Wednesday night.

Snow Totals:

From Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, I'm expecting 3-6 inches of new snow in the Tetons above 8,000 feet and a half-inch to 2 inches in the valleys (Teton Valley slightly more favored than the JH Valley). 

This is a lower confidence forecast than usual for this close to the event as there is a decent amount of boom and bust potential. We are counting on a cold front passing through to be the main driver of snow, and that can sometimes bite us as occasionally snowfall associated with a cold frontal passage (with limited moisture and energy to work with otherwise) becomes disorganized, spotty, and short-lived.

The "boom" potential stems from two factors. First, with cold frontal passages, bands of heavy snowfall can also develop that result in locally heavy snowfall rates that can lead to decent accumulations in a short period of time (2-3 hours). 

Also, if we manage to get some robust backside snow showers due to instability in the atmosphere, then that could lead to locally heavy snowfall rates on Wednesday afternoon.

My sense is that we will likely see a round of decent snowfall rates with the cold front on Wednesday morning, but I'm not feeling as good about our accumulation potential behind the cold front on Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, I think 3-6" is the most likely range for the Tetons. 

Wind:

This could ultimately be one of those events where wind ends up being more of a factor than new snow. Winds will be quite strong throughout the day on Wednesday, especially during the morning hours as the cold front moves through with gusts to 60 mph or higher possible in exposed areas above 9,000 feet.

Sustained winds above 9,000 feet will be in the 20-30 mph range throughout the day. Gusts on Wednesday afternoon will be slightly lower compared to the morning (50 mph gusts as opposed to 60), but it will be enough that upper mountain lift delays are possible.

Wind direction up high will be out of the west or west/southwest ahead of the cold front, and west/northwest behind the cold front on Wednesday afternoon.

Valley winds will also be strong throughout the day on Wednesday out of the south/southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

Snow Quality and Temperature Trends:

Temperatures in the Tetons will be trending colder throughout this event, starting in the upper teens as light snow begins on Tuesday night, falling into the low teens by Wednesday morning and then into the single digits by Wednesday afternoon.

This will be a medium-density snow event. Cold temperatures would favor low-density powder, but the strong winds will prevent snow-liquid ratios from being as high (and snow density as low) as they could be.

Skiing Conditions:

Wednesday afternoon will be the best time to ski fresh snow from this storm, but I'm expecting variable conditions due to strong winds and a relatively light snow forecast. If Wednesday afternoon's snow shower activity is heavier than expected, then maybe we will see a "surprise" but I'm not counting on it. 

Travel Conditions:

Although short-lived, travel conditions will likely be rough for a few hours around mid-morning Wednesday as the cold front moves through, which will lead to locally heavy snowfall rates along with strong winds and reduced visibility.

I would recommend traveling over the pass early Wednesday morning (prior to 7am) or waiting until late in the day. Wednesday afternoon's snow shower activity is a bit of a wild card, but could potentially lead to occasional periods of reduced visibility over the pass.

Valley snowfall is expected to be fairly light overall, but brief heavy snowfall rates couldn't be ruled out at times. Strong winds will be the primary concern on the valley roads as this will result in blowing snow in open areas at all hours of the day, so plan accordingly.

Outlook for Thursday (Feb 9) to Monday (Feb 13):

We will head into a dry pattern during this period as high pressure builds over the Northern Rockies. A temperature inversion will also set up during this period with highs struggling to get out of the teens in the valleys from Thursday to Saturday. The inversion should erode on Sunday as a weak cold front moves through.

In the Tetons, highs will reach the teens on Thursday, but then a more significant warm-up will occur on Friday and Saturday with highs in the upper 20s. The sun is starting to get stronger and with mid to upper-mountain temperatures approaching freezing, we could see some solar radiation impacts on south-facing and other sun-exposed aspects.

Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday as a cold front moves through with highs expected to reach the teens at 9,000 feet. I suspect snow conditions will be variable over the weekend with the best conditions on north-facing and shaded aspects.

Outlook for February 14th-21st:

Following our dry spell, our next chance of snow will be around Tuesday, February 14th as a storm approaches from the northwest.

After that, we may dry out again for a few days then we could see a more active pattern return around President's Day weekend (Feb 18th-20th).

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (Feb 8).

ALAN SMITH