Forecast for Saturday to Sunday:

High pressure will linger over the area through the weekend, resulting in dry conditions with mostly sunny skies on Saturday giving way to partly cloudy skies on Sunday. Temperatures will trend slightly warmer but will remain below average with highs in the 20s at 9,000 feet and 30s in the valley. Winds will generally be light.

Forecast for Monday to Tuesday:

The first in a series of storms over the upcoming week will impact our area. A larger trough of low pressure will be approaching the California coast, while a leading edge disturbance will eject northeastward ahead of the main trough and reach the Tetons from the southwest.

Snow showers will begin sometime early on Monday morning (possibly before 5am reports) and will continue through at least the first half of the day on Tuesday with decreasing snow chances heading into Tuesday night.

Snow Totals:

Snowfall above 8,000 feet in the Tetons will range from 3-7 inches on Monday-Tuesday. Jackson Hole and Teton Pass will likely end up with higher snowfall than Targhee with southwest winds aloft.

Snow totals will range from 0.5 to 2 inches in the valleys, favoring the Jackson side more than Teton Valley. Valley accumulations will be confined to the morning and overnight hours with melting expected during the afternoons as temps rise above freezing, though falling precipitation should stay all-snow. 

Snow King should pick up 2-4 inches of snow from this storm.

Snow Quality Temperature Trends:

Snowfall will be relatively high-density on Monday with snow-liquid ratios of around 11:1 before trending lower density on Tuesday with snow-liquid ratios of around 13:1.

Temperatures at 9,000 feet will start out in the low 20s on Monday morning before rising into the mid 20s on Monday afternoon. Temps will fall into the mid teens on Monday night and peak in the upper teens to low 20s on Tuesday afternoon.

Valley temperatures will start out in the upper 20s on Monday morning before peaking in the upper 30s on Monday afternoon. Valley temps will fall into the upper 20s on Monday night and peak in the mid 30s on Tuesday afternoon. Despite the milder daytime temps, freezing levels should not rise too far above the valley floor (peak freezing levels of 7,000 feet or so on Mon, and 6,500 feet on Tue). 

Wind:

The good news is that winds are expected to be relatively light to moderate during this event with ridgetop gusts currently projected to stay under 30 mph with sustained winds generally in the 10-15 mph range.

Winds will generally be out of the southwest for most of this event, occasionally turning to south/southwest.

Skiing Conditions:

It's getting late enough in the year that relatively light snow events such as this won't lead to a significant improvement in conditions unless totals end up being much higher than forecasted. Crust layers will still be felt under this new snowfall in most areas, though softer conditions are likely in high-elevation north-facing and/or shaded terrain. 

Travel Conditions:

Teton Pass will see winter conditions beginning on Monday morning with a mix of snowpacked, slushy, and icy roads expected during the Monday evening commute and especially the Tuesday morning commute. At this time, valley roads are not expected to be significantly impacted during this storm, though some slush on the roads will be possible on Tuesday morning. 

Stay tuned for an updated forecast on Monday morning as we get more dialed on this storm.

Outlook for Wednesday (March 22) to Friday (March 24):

Two storms are expected to impact the Tetons during the second half of the week. The first storm will involve a large trough of low pressure moving from California into the Central Rockies on Wednesday and Thursday. This storm will be stronger than the last one and has the potential to produce heavier snow in the Tetons.

However, it all depends on the storm track. If the storm track is far enough north, we will have a better chance of seeing moderate to even heavy snowfall. If the storm tracks too far south, then we could end up missing out on most of the action and end up with minimal snowfall.

Winds will likely take on more of a due southerly component with this storm which is more favorable for Jackson Hole, the Southern Teton Range, Snow King, and lower Jackson valley and less favorable for Targhee and the west side.

Temperatures on Wed-Thu look fairly similar to Mon-Tue as well.

Late in the week, another storm is projected to approach the Tetons from the west/northwest. Depending on the exact storm track and the amount of moisture to work with, this storm could end up being more favorable for Targhee compared to the last storms as Targhee typically does better with west/northwest winds aloft. Snow King, the JH Valley, and the JH lower mountain tend to see less snowfall with west/northwest winds.

The one thing to watch for this storm is that it could potentially slide too far south of the area after making landfall in the PNW, whereas a more northerly path would be more favorable. We'll see how this pans out moving forward.

Outlook for March 25th-April 1st:

We may see a relative lull during the weekend of March 25th-26th though we could still potentially see some snow shower activity in between stormy periods. An active pattern is then expected to resume from March 27th through the end of the month with additional snow chances along with below-average temperatures.

Thanks so much for reading and have a great weekend! Next update on Monday (March 20).

ALAN SMITH