Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

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Three storms, Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday


Storm 1 will bring rain on Sunday, with a few wet snowflakes in the higher terrain of New York. There will be a few backside snow showers on Monday, with Storm 2 bringing light rain and snow on Tuesday. Strom 3 enters the region late Wednesday and Thursday, but a lot of model uncertainty regarding the storm track and intensity remains. Some rain and snow are possible. Let’s break it all down…

Short Term Forecast

It’s been a pretty good weekend of skiing and riding with more terrain opening throughout the region. We’ve got a busy week ahead with three storms beginning on Sunday and ending on Thursday, February 2nd. 

Storm 1, Sunday 1/29: 

This storm continues to track north through the region Sunday and will bring mostly rain. Some wet snowflakes will mix in the northwestern Mid-Atlantic and the Catskills. Rain will be light and scattered, so it’ll still be a good day to get on the slopes. Here is a look at the HRRR model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 9 am Sunday, January 28th through 1 pm, January 30th.

Make sure to check out the Current Radar and Future Radar to see where precipitation is moving. A few snow showers will track through PA and NY on Monday, and produce a trace - 1 inch of snow. 

Storm 2, Tuesday 1/31:

The next weak storm quickly moves into the region on Tuesday. This storm still remains a bit tricky to see where it will track, and how much moisture it will have. Precipitation will be light and on the north side of the storm, there will be light snow. This could extend into central PA or areas of the southern Mid-Atlantic.

Here is a look at NAM (left) and GFS (right) model’s snow accumulations on Tuesday, January 31st. 

Storm 3, Wednesday to Thursday 2/1, 2/2:

Our third storm of the week will be the strongest of the three but also has the greatest uncertainty. There are a couple of options for the track and intensity. 

  • Track 1 could be similar to the other storms this week with a west-to-east (snow to the north and rain south)
  • Track 2 could have a coastal storm develop and move up the coast, but precipitation types are very uncertain

There is also a storm to the north, that could swing some snow showers and lake effect snow into the northern Mid-Atlanitc in this time frame. It is a lot to unpack and to be honest, I am not sure what is going to happen yet. I’ll know more information early this week. I don't want to show a model graphic because there really is not something good that captures the uncertainty regarding this storm system. 

Extended Forecast

There will be some shots of weak storms to the north in the extended forecast. There are no strong signals of cold air or strong storm systems. We have been very active for the last month, so it might be time for a break in the storm track. We will still see chances of rain or snow, just nothing major. 

Here is a look at the GFS model’s upper-level pattern from Saturday, February 4th to Tuesday, February 7th. 

The cool blue colors show shots of cold air and some weak storms to the north, with the warm (yellow/orange) colors showing a break in the storm track and warmer temperatures. 

That is all for this forecast and thanks for reading. I’ll have the next update Monday morning. 

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.