Resorts in New York have done well with lake effect snow bands on Friday and will continue until Saturday morning. Skiers and riders are getting after it despite the bone-chilling cold. This area of arctic air will continue to be here Saturday, with a substantial warming trend on Sunday, that will stay for next week. Let’s break it all down…
Short Term Forecast
This has been one heck of an arctic air mass with frigid temperatures in most of the region. Areas in WV and to the north are feeling it hardest with wind chills well below 0 degrees. Despite that, lake effect snow has been cranking for the northwestern Mid-Atlantic and Finger Lakes of NY. Several resorts are reporting over 5 inches of snow, like Holiday Valley reporting 7 inches as of Friday night.
Lake effect snow will be drastically weaker Saturday morning and continue in a few areas until the early afternoon. Additional snow accumulations of a trace - 1 inch are likely. Cold temperatures will still be here Saturday with a few degrees higher than Friday. Winds will be weaker as well with winds chills staying below 0 in the morning, but rising to above 0 throughout the day.
Temperatures will drastically warm on Sunday with highs in the upper 30s to the north, 40s, and maybe even 50 to the south. During Sunday evening, a weak storm to the north will bring some rain and snow showers to the western and northern Mid-Atlantic. A few snow showers will be around Monday, with warming temperatures to the south. Here is a look at the NAM 12 km model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 1 pm Sunday, February 5th through 7 pm, Monday, February 6th.
Precipitation will be light and scattered, with potential snow accumulations of a trace - 2 inches for the highest terrain. Here is a look at the NAM 12 km model’s snow accumulations from Sunday, February 5th to Tuesday, February 7th.
I mentioned in the last couple of forecasts that next week will be drier, but that might not be the case with chances of precipitation, mainly for the western half of the region. A weak storm will pass to the north Tuesday evening, February 7th with a round of rain and snow showers. Precipitation will be light and snow will be wet if it falls in NY. Most precipitation should clear by Wednesday morning February 8th.
There is some cautious optimism showing up in our extended forecast. This may come next weekend, February 11th and 12th, as well as the following week. Before we get there though, there will be another storm system tracking through the region on Thursday, February 9th. This storm looks like it will push through the region and to the north, but there is some model uncertainty this far out. A few areas to the north could have some initial snow and there could be backside snow north and west by Friday, February 10th.
Next weekend on Saturday and Sunday, February 11th and 12th, models are showing signs of a quick dip in the jet stream, that could align well with a storm system moving through the region or along the coast. It is way too early to have confidence in this yet, but we all need some hope for our winter this season. Here is a look at the GFS model’s predicted upper-level pattern on Saturday, February 11th.
The next week (February 13th) will likely see above average temperatures, but there are some indications of more brief dips in the jet stream. All we need is the timing of a storm and cold air to be right. This is some cautious optimism and more hope in my boat than the last couple of forecasts. We will see how the forecast continues to evolve.
Thanks for reading and have a great Saturday. I will have the next update Monday morning.
Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.
Check out OpenSnow's podcast where this past week we talk about Where the Snow Is Headed as we reach the Mid-Point of Winter, catch up with Powder Chaser Stever to see Where He is Chasing Snow, check in with Zach Butler to see What the Heck is Going On with the Northeast's Winter, report the 5-Day Snowfall Totals around the U.S., look at the Snowfall Forecast for The Upcoming Week, and discuss The Long-Range Snowfall Patterns!