Midwest Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Midwest Daily Snow

By Croix Christenson, Meteorologist Posted 3 months ago November 28, 2023

Warmer by Midweek

Summary

Lake effect snow and snow showers will continue on Tuesday followed by a warmer end to the week. Things look relatively quiet through Saturday before a better-organized system is possible late in the weekend.

Short Term Forecast

Tuesday, Nov. 28 to Sunday, December 3:

North Shore Lake Superior

Periods of snow showers or light snow are possible at times this week but no major snow is expected through Saturday. The resorts near Thunder Bay have the best odds of seeing 1"+ with a system Tuesday night into Wednesday, but even then there will be limited moisture to work with. 

Resorts should be able to continue to make a strong snowmaking push this week, here is a look at forecast snowmaking conditions at Lutsen:

I am monitoring the possibility of a system around Dec. 3-4 but only about ~20% of the models have significant snow for this region. 

South Shore Lake Superior

Summary of the week ahead:

  • Light snow/lake effect Tuesday into Wednesday AM
  • Light snow/lake effect returns Thursday/Fri
  • Better organized system possible (~20% of models have more significant snow for this region) Dec. 3-4

Searchmont has received quite a lot of snow from this current lake effect cycle, however, they may sneak above freeze once or twice before they spin the lifts later this week ruining the powder. However, they should have a solid base and selection of runs open this weekend!  

ECWMF ensemble (all 50 members):

Twin Cities Region

There's been little change to the forecast, with mainly dry conditions from Tuesday to Saturday and a warmer pattern starting Wednesday which will be warm enough to impact snowmaking operations.  Models continue to hint at a system possible late in the weekend but only about 25% of models have notable snow for this region. 

Forecast snowmaking conditions at Buck Hill: 

Central and Southern Wisconsin

Opening day announcements!

  • Little Switzerland - Nov. 29
  • Granite Peak - Dec. 1
  • Cascade - Dec. 2

An overall quiet week is still expected with a warming trend that will make snowmaking conditions more varied starting on Wednesday. Models continue to hint at the possibility of rain/snow late in the weekend but there's a low confidence at when and how much. 

Forecast snowmaking conditions at Granite Peak: 

Forecast snowmaking conditions at Cascade Mountain: 

Northern Lower Michigan

As of 7 am ET, snowfall reports from Sunday night to Tuesday am mainly range from 3-7" with a few reports as high as 9". 

The first of hopefully a handful, Crystal Mountain has announced they will be opening this Friday, Dec. 1! Snow showers/lake effect snow will continue on Tuesday before things turn a bit warmer by Wednesday, shutting off the lake effect snow. 

Models continue to hint at a better-organized system around December 3-4, but my confidence is low and there could be a mix of rain and snow depending on which model is correct. 

Forecast snowmaking conditions at Crystal Mountain: 

Southern Lower Michigan

Favorable snowmaking conditions continue on Tuesday along with snow showers and lake effect snow showers off of Lake Michigan. By Wednesday, we will see milder air return and much less favorable snowmaking conditions at times. We could see some light rain late this week and more rain or snow late in the weekend, but confidence is low on which model will be correct that far out. 

Forecast snowmaking conditions at Mount Holly: 

Extended Forecast

December 4 to 10:

  • Better organized system possible December 3-4
    • If models are correct, it could be a rain/snow mix as the system brings in warmer air
  • There is a slight signal that precipitation will be drier compared to normal 
  • Moderate signal that it will be warmer than normal
    • The warmest day is likely around the 7th

December 11 to 17:

  • No clear precipitation signal compared to normal (equal odds of drier or wetter)
  • There is a slight signal of warmer than normal, but not by much at this time

The next forecast will be posted on Wednesday around 7:15 am CDT unless little change to the forecast then it will be Thursday - thanks for reading! 

Announcements

Road Conditions:

Social Media Profiles: 

REGIONS:

North Shore Lake Superior
Open: Mount Baldy, Spirit Mountain, Mont du Lac

Opening Dates: Lutsen - Dec. 1, Loch Lomond - Dec 8, Giants Ridge - Dec. 2

Closed: Chester Bowl, Bearskin

South Shore Lake Superior
Open: Ski Brule, Searchmont

Opening Dates: Snowriver - Dec. 1

Closed: ABR, Whitecap, Ripley, Birkie, Powderhorn, Porkies, Bohemia, Marquette Mtn, Pine Mtn

Twin Cities Region
Open: Andes Tower Hills, Wild Mtn, Trollhaugen, Powder Ridge

Opening Dates: Afton Alps - Nov. 29, Christie Dec. 8, Hyland Hills - Dec 1 

Closed: Coffee Mill, Mount Kato, Buck Hill, Welch Village

Central and Southern Wisconsin
Open: Alpine Valley (WI), Sundown (Iowa)

Opening Dates: Little Switz - Nov. 29, Cascade - Dec. 2, Granite Peak - Dec. 1

Closed: Paul Bunyan, Nordic Mtn, Mt La Crosse, Devil's Head, Wilmot, Mountain Top, Chestnut (Illinois), Sunburst, Tyrol

Northern Lower Michigan
Opening Dates: Crystal Mtn - Dec 1

Closed: Boyne Highlands, Nub's Nob, Boyne Mtn, Otsego, Shanty Crk, Caberfae, Treetops

Southern Lower Michigan
Open: Mt Holly, Pine Knob

Opening Dates: Bittersweet - tentative Nov. 29

Closed: Cannonsburg, Timber Ridge, Swiss Valley, Mt Brighton, Alpine Valley (MI)

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About Our Forecaster

Croix Christenson

Meteorologist

Croix grew up in Saint Paul, Minnesota where he developed his passion for the outdoors and snow. He attended the University of Wisconsin-Madison and received his BS and MS in Atmospheric Science. When not working, you will find Croix exploring his Duluth, Minnesota backyard by skiing, mountain biking, fishing, surfing, hiking with his dog Doppler, or just about any activity that gets him outside.

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