Midwest Daily Snow

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By Croix Christenson, Meteorologist Posted 2 months ago December 3, 2023

Snow Sunday, Turning Milder This Week

Summary

Expect some light snow for Wisconsin and Northern Lower Michigan on Sunday before milder air returns this week. Snow chances will be limited after Sunday, with minimal accumulations the next 5+ days.

Short Term Forecast

Sunday, Dec. 3 to Sunday, Dec. 11:

North Shore Lake Superior

There's been little change to the forecast: there could be a few light snow chances or flurries at times, but no major systems for at least the next 5 days. It is possible somewhere along the north shore of Lake Superior in Minnesota squeezes out an inch or so Sunday/Sunday night with on-shore winds and light lake effect snow. 

There's a little better chance at an inch or two this week for the Thunder Bay area, but the systems will be moisture-starved, limiting the potential for significant snow. 

We should be able to keep making snow this week at times. Here are the forecast snowmaking conditions at Loch Lomond, which opens December 8th: 

Further south at Lutsen, opportunities will be more limited: 

South Shore Lake Superior

There's been no change to the forecast from Saturday's update: a few moisture-starved systems pay a visit this week with limited lake effect snow as we will be too mild. There remains some hope for snow around the 10th - more on that in the extended forecast below. 

Here is a look at snowfall so far this season in Marquette, MI - below normal, with limited improvement this week: 

Twin Cities Region

Spring fever? It will feel more like March-ish than early December with multiple days in the 40s and even a chance at 50. This will limit the snowmaking for the next 5+ days for most locations. In looking for something optimistic, the ensembles continue to hint at something around the 10th - look for more on that in the extended forecast. 

Central and Southern Wisconsin

Today, Sunday, will feature mainly rain for southeast Wisconsin and mainly snow for the rest of the resorts in the area. The best odds at seeing 1-2" will be in east-central Wisconsin with a few areas possibly picking up ~3". Snow quality on Sunday will be of the wet/thick variety, not fluffy powder. 

Here is a look at a blend of models and where snow is most likely on Sunday (darker blues show best odds of 1-2"): 

Looking ahead to next week, it will be mostly mild, with no major systems until around the 10th. 

Northern Lower Michigan

Light snow returns today, Sunday, for the region, with flakes flying while the lifts spin for most of the resorts. Most locations will pick up an inch or two, with a few possibly seeing ~3" or so. The snow that falls on Sunday/Sunday night will be of the wet/thick variety as temperatures will be near freezing.  

Here is a look at a blend of models and where snow is most likely on Sunday during the day (darker blues show the best odds of a 1-2"+):

Forecast snow and snow quality from a blend of models for Sunday at Crystal:

Forecast snow and snow quality from a blend of models for Sunday at Boyne Mtn:  

Sadly, that could be the best chance at a few inches of snow until maybe the 10th, when models suggest we could see a better-organized system pay a visit to the Midwest. Mild temperatures this week will limit snowmaking as well.  

Southern Lower Michigan

  • Mainly rain on Sunday
  • Mild week on tap, limiting snowmaking for the region
  • A better-organized system around the 10th?

Forecast snowmaking conditions at Mt Holly

Extended Forecast

Hope! Something is lingering in the models around the 9th or 10th based on the latest data from both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. It is way too early to talk details, but models point to one or more systems in that time frame worth monitoring. 

Here is a look at both ECMWF and GFS Ensemble 24-hour forecast precipitation for the 10th of December: 

The next forecast will be posted on Monday - thanks for reading! 

Announcements

Latest Opening Dates by Region!

North Shore Lake Superior
Open: Giants Ridge, Lutsen, Mount Baldy, Spirit Mountain, Mont du Lac

Opening Dates: Loch Lomond - Dec 8

Closed: Chester Bowl, Bearskin

South Shore Lake Superior
Open: Marquette Mtn, Ski Brule, Searchmont, Snowriver

Closed: ABR, Whitecap, Ripley, Birkie, Powderhorn, Porkies, Bohemia, Pine Mtn

Twin Cities Region
Open: Afton Alps, Hyland Hills, Buck Hill, Andes Tower Hills, Wild Mtn, Trollhaugen, Powder Ridge, Welch Village (pass holders only Dec 2-3)

Opening Dates: Christie Dec. 8

Closed: Coffee Mill, Mount Kato

Central and Southern Wisconsin
Open: Alpine Valley (WI), Sundown (Iowa), Little Switz, Cascade, Granite Peak, Devil's Head, Wilmot Mtn, Sunburst, Nordic Mtn, Chestnut (Illinois), Tyrol

Closed: Paul Bunyan, Mt La Crosse, Mountain Top

Northern Lower Michigan
Open: Crystal Mtn, Nub's Nob, Boyne Highlands, Boyne Mtn, Caberfae, Treetops

Closed: Otsego, Shanty Crk

Southern Lower Michigan
Open: Mt Holly, Pine Knob, Bittersweet, Alpine Valley (MI), Mt Brighton

Closed: Cannonsburg, Timber Ridge, Swiss Valley

Road Conditions:

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About Our Forecaster

Croix Christenson

Meteorologist

Croix grew up in Saint Paul, Minnesota where he developed his passion for the outdoors and snow. He attended the University of Wisconsin-Madison and received his BS and MS in Atmospheric Science. When not working, you will find Croix exploring his Duluth, Minnesota backyard by skiing, mountain biking, fishing, surfing, hiking with his dog Doppler, or just about any activity that gets him outside.

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