Good morning, New England! Some fairly mild conditions will be in store for today as temperatures rise into the mid-upper 20s by the afternoon. Winds will be light under partly sunny skies.

Some high clouds will begin to roll in throughout the day ahead of a storm system that will push into our region overnight. Precipitation will arrive for New York-Vermont-western Massachusetts during the early morning hours on Sunday and will gradually push into the rest of New England by the time resorts are open. Resorts in eastern New York and Massachusetts will see rain for most of the day Sunday, whereas Vermont and New Hampshire will see some snow for the first few hours of the storm that gradually mixes with sleet.

As we head into Sunday afternoon, cold temperatures near the surface will erode as warm air mixes down from aloft. This will unfortunately mean rain or a wintry mix for nearly all resorts across New England, even northernmost resorts. A possible exception to this is Sugarloaf, whose northerly location could put it out of reach of the rain/mix. Here’s a look at the GFS storm track and precipitation types:

Precipitation type loop courtesy of College of DuPage

Colder temperatures behind the storm will turn any remaining moisture to snow by Sunday evening. These upslope snow showers will last through Monday, bringing some additional snowfall. Snow totals from before and after the rain-mix could reach upwards of 6-8” for northernmost areas (northern Vermont, northern White Mountains, Sugarloaf), where precipitation was able to stay as snow for longer and where accumulations from upslope are higher. Elsewhere can expect 2-4”:

Snowfall totals map courtesy of Plymouth State

Some Arctic air will also begin to move in behind the storm on Monday, along with wind gusts upwards of 50 mph. These conditions will continue into the middle of the week...

By Tuesday, most upslope snow showers will taper off by the early morning hours. A stray snow shower or two may be possible in the higher elevations of western Maine, northern New Hampshire, and northern Vermont, but accumulations will be close to nothing as precipitation rates stay low. A strong and consistent northwest wind will bring frigid temperatures back to the Northeast through the overnight hours. The passage of an arctic cold front will bring summit temperatures down to the single digits to low teens below zero and base temperatures down into the single digits above zero. These frigid temperatures will be met with summit wind speeds around 30-45 mph with higher gusts possible, making frostbite a considerable threat to any exposed skin.

On Wednesday, morning base temperatures in northern New England will start in the upper single digits below zero and will struggle to rise to more than the lower single digits above zero. In terms of snow, it is still unclear whether or not we will stay in a dry pattern for the remainder of the week. The ECMWF suggests mainly dry weather through at least Sunday, where it then suggests a noteworthy storm. However, this storm appears to be mostly rain with some areas of snow to the north and it is inconsistent across model runs, so I’m not buying it yet. Interestingly, the GFS suggests that a chunk of energy will cross the northern Rockies and arrive in the Northeast by late Wednesday evening and spark up snow showers across New England. Here is the solution from the GFS:

Precipitation type loop courtesy of College of DuPage

This solution is only agreed upon by one other forecast model, so I wouldn’t put too much faith in this one. The GFS does depict a storm around a similar timeframe as the ECMWF, however, the composition of the storm is considerably different. It is still too early to say whether this storm will come to fruition, but be sure to check back on Monday for further updates!

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Lauren McCarthy, Plymouth State University Graduate Student (short term)

Sam Webber, Plymouth State University Graduate Student (long term)