Much of New England is sitting under mostly clear skies on Monday morning following a weekend of light snow. Jay Peak was the big winner with 4" reported new on Monday morning with several 2-inch reports elsewhere across northern Vermont, in the Whites, and in western Maine. Whiteface reported 3" and Mt. Washington has 1.8" new. Conditions are skiing and riding as good as they get with nearly full coverage across the North Country, packed powder for days, and groomers. If you got out this past weekend, I hope you avoided the long lines.

NAM model forecast animation for 7AM Monday through 7AM Tuesday.

The forecast for Monday calls for high pressure to retreat quickly into the North Atlantic and a weak cold front to pass through the region. Snow showers will once again be possible across the North Country with little accumulation expected (~1"+) in the Adirondacks and northern Greens. The flakes may fly elsewhere in northern New England, but widespread accumulation is not expected with one exception. Some snows may focus along the Maine Coast into the overnight period. If the Camden Snow Bowl is on deck for Tuesday, then you may find 2-3" new in the morning. 

The rest of the week through Thursday is now looking pretty quiet. High pressure is going to move into the region on Tuesday and then slide to our south. The flow around the high will keep westerly flow in place during the week, and with some extension of lake-effect moisture, we can't rule out some snow showers across our western resorts.

GFS model forecast animation for 7PM Thursday through 7PM Friday. 

Our next shot at accumulating snow is setting up for Thursday night with the passage of an Arctic front. Timing right now looks like it'll arrive in northern Vermont after midnight and be clear of the region by 7AM Friday. Strong cold air advection is going to drop the temperature throughout the day on Friday with temperatures likely going below 0F (without the wind) pretty early in the day. 

Our forecast up at Jay, which granted is pretty far north near the Canadian Border, has temperatures of 0F by 7AM on Friday and drops below -10F by 10AM and hitting -20F by 8PM. Combined with northerly winds of 20-25 mph, the wind chill is going to be -40F or colder. Not fun. Stay warm. 

ECMWF and GFS ensemble odds of temperatures below -20F on Saturday morning.

The temperatures continues to drop overnight into Saturday with almost all of New England dropping below 0F and the northern half of the region dropping below -20F. If the current forecasts hold, temperatures will likely drop below -30F at several locations across the region, especially in the high elevations of the Whites. I'd stay out of the backcountry on Saturday (period). It's not worth it. High temperatures on Saturday will likely warm only to -15F to 0F region-wide for some of the coldest daytime temperatures since 2004. 

ECMWF temperature forecast through Wednesday 8 Feb.

The good news is that temperatures are only unbearably cold for a day. We'll start off cold again on Sunday morning, but quickly rebound through the 20s to near 30F at most places across the North Country (see Rutland above). Current forecasts have a chance at light snow later on Sunday, high pressure on Monday and Tuesday, and then it's may be back to our December-early-January scheduled programming with highs pushing the mid-30s and low-40s by mid-week next week (7-8 Feb) with rain possible on Wednesday (8 Feb). Boo.

Next forecast: Wednesday.