Temperatures hits 50F in the valleys across Central New England on Tuesday and will likely make another run at 50F on Wednesday as high pressure slides offshore. We'll see increasing clouds ahead of our next chance of precipitation that arrives on Thursday with first a warm front and then a storm tracking far to our north and west. This storm is likely going to bring rain and rain showers to the region for the day on Thursday with snow showers likely in the high elevations above 4000 feet. Total rainfall could exceed 0.5". The snowpack can likely absorb this much liquid at higher elevations, but given the recent warmth and ripening of the snowpack (turning to corn/increasing temperature) some melt is likely especially at lower elevations. 

GFS model forecast animation 5AM Saturday through 8AM Sunday.

Our next shot at precipitation arrives during the day on Saturday likely in the form of high-elevation snow, mid-elevation wet snow, and base mix. The best chance for all snow will be at elevations above 3000 feet and locations that are farther north and east (e.g., northern Greens, Whites, and western Maine). The snow is thanks to a moderate strength storm crossing the Great Lakes region with a coastal storm trying ever so hard to develop and take over into Saturday night. It looks decently windy on Saturday afternoon too with gusts >50mph out of the south likely at elevation. 

GFS model forecast for "total snowfall depth positive change (inches)" through 8AM Sunday.

Because we're dealing with the potential for mix and marginal thermal profiles, I'm showing the positive depth change map from the GFS model. Liquid equivalent precipitation should be ~0.75" to 1.0", but with marginal temperatures we're unlikely to see the 10:1 ratios across the region outside of the highest elevations in the whites. The GFS model is suggesting snowfall accumulations of ~3-5" are likely in the Greens and Whites above ~2500 feet with higher amounts >6" in the Presidentials. Of course the GFS isn't our only model. The GFS ensemble has a range of 0.6" to 1.4" of liquid, and on the high end could get us closer to a foot in the high elevations. 

The OpenSnow Blend is doing a decent job, in my opinion, of capturing the lower ratios and spread in this upcoming event. Here are few ranges (and point forecasts):

• Killington: 2-7" (5")
• Jay: 7-13" (8")
• Stowe: 6-12" (8")
• Waterville Valley: 9-17" (12")
• Wildcat: 11-19" (14")
• Sugarloaf: 9-19" (12")

ECMWF and GFS model comparison for next Tuesday. 

In the extended range we had been tracking a storm for early next week that is now trending out to sea. Most models are pushing this storm weaker and offshore, but a few still have it clipping the region producing snow on Tuesday/Wednesday. The spread and model differences are almost comical (see above). Regardless, I think we can expect some snow early-to-mid-week next week either with this storm to our south or some snow showers across the North.

-Dr. Jay

The next DailySnow update will be on Friday.