A storm will pass to our west on Saturday bringing a mix of snow, sleet (and rain) to New England through early Sunday. Snow totals will generally top out less than 3" in Vermont with higher totals in New Hampshire and Maine.
Short Term Forecast
NAM model forecast for 8AM Saturday through 8AM Sunday.
A warm front tied to a storm over the Great Lakes region will advance north over New England on Saturday bringing a mix of snow, sleet, and some rain into Saturday night and early Sunday morning. The heaviest precipitation will arrive with the warm frontal passage, and due to the precipitation intensity, likely hold on as wet snow. As the intensity backs off and warmer air filters in immediately behind the front, precipitation will become more scattered and likely mix with rain and sleet. Precipitation goes back over to light snow on Saturday night before mostly ending on Sunday morning.
National Weather Service snowfall maps through Sunday.
I think the National Weather Service has a pretty good handle on the snowfall forecast for this event. It does look like warmer air will make its way into Vermont and they will see less snowfall than locations farther north and east into Maine. The Burlington office has snowfall amounts generally under 3" for most locations in Vermont with highest totals along the Greens above ~2500 feet. The Gray office is a bit more bullish due to colder air and better thermal profiles. Highest totals are above 3" in New Hampshire and Maine and will be in the Whites above 3000 feet and extend north toward Sugarloaf. It looks like >6" is possible above 4000 feet near Wildcat. There's a good chance here that sleet could also knock back these totals. It'll be a wet day on the slopes down low, but gloppy snow globing up high.
The OpenSnow blend is even more bullish with totals spanning 8-12" at the New Hampshire and Maine resorts, but similarly low(er) totals in Vermont topping out less than 1-3" (central and south) and less than 3-5" (north). I'm personally leaning in favor the NWS above.
GFS model forecast animation for 2PM Monday through 8AM Wednesday.
The GFS model forecast still has a weak storm crossing the region early next week. This weak area of low pressure will cross from the lower Great Lakes east across Pennsylvania and out to sea on Monday night and potentially bring light snow to central and southern New England.
ECMWF and GFS model comparison for 8PM on Monday night (3/28).
ECMWF and GFS ensemble model comparison for 8AM on Tuesday morning (3/29).
A quick comparison of the ECMWF and GFS models at 8PM on Monday night (3/28) illustrates a world of a difference with almost nothing in the ECMWF model. The ensemble solution is more or less the same story as the storms (or lack thereof) progress east into Tuesday morning (3/29).
ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall in central Vermont through early April.
A closer look at the ECMWF ensemble grid for Vermont illustrates that it's not just a weak system being depicted by the ensemble mean. The mean is a mix of some storms that do produce snow and some that do not. There are 8 members (out of 50) producing more than 9" at Rutland with a total of 12 producing more than 6". All together, 45 members (90%) have something. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
The DailySnow will be updated over the weekend.