New England Daily Snow
By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 3 months ago December 1, 2023
More snow is likely across the highest elevations of the Greens and Whites this weekend with more widespread snow possible into Monday.
Short Term Forecast
Snowfall reports summed over the last 7 days courtesy of the CoCoRaHS network.
The Vermont snowpack is quite robust right now with mid-winter conditions emerging at elevation following several days of upslope this week. The CoCoRaHS network is showing several 12"+ totals along the Greens into the Northeast Kingdom (above) with the Mt. Mansfield snow stake popping to a 26" depth far above most seasons in the historical record for this time of year (below). You have to go back to about 2007 to find a better November snowpack in the northern Greens.
Mt. Mansfield snow stake as of 30 November 2023. Courtesy https://matthewparrilla.com/mansfield-stake/.
Let's talk about Jay Peak for a moment. They are reporting almost four feet in the last 7 days! That's pretty incredible for November. So what happened? The first ~12-18" of this snow fell with the system over the weekend that we thought was going to be low-end and/or mostly rain (surprise, it was snow). The next 1-2 feet was all Jay Cloud in an incredibly efficient, moist upslope west-northwest flow, with temperatures ideally in the "dendritic growth zone" (i.e., where snowflaky-snowflakes grow best). The result? Blower on base, and 47" in 7 days.
Jay Peak snow report (30 November 2023: https://jaypeakresort.com/skiing-riding/snow-report-maps/snow-report)
The forecast is less than ideal for those hoping for widespread snow on Friday and Saturday. Several weak storms are expected to slide just over and slightly north of the region. Marginal temperatures profiles will result in a mix of rain at lower elevations and some snow at higher elevations. One round is expected on Friday evening and the next on Saturday afternoon.
NAM model forecast animation for 7AM Friday through 7AM Sunday.
The NAM model is a bit ambitious with snowfall totals pumping out ~4-7" at the highest elevations in the Greens and Whites on a 10:1 ratio. Given the warm air and marginal temperatures, I'd caution going out on that limb, but 2-4" total might not be out of the question on top of Mt. Mansfield or Jay. Nevertheless there's the potential for more snow above ~3000-3500 feet across northern Vermont and New Hampshire.
NAM model snowfall forecast through 7PM Saturday using the 10:1 ratio.
A third round of precipitation is expected on Sunday into Monday, but current forecasts are remarkably uncertain. Thereafter, another round of colder air on northwest flow should produce favorable conditions for upslope snows across the northern Greens through midweek.
Details for Sunday/Monday
A storm will move into New England from southwest to northeast and bring a mix of rain and snow to the region into Monday. Depending on which model you trust most, it could be all rain, all snow, snow-to-rain, or snow-to-rain-to-snow.
Multi-model solutions for rain/snow at 1AM on Sunday Night.
If you like the ECMWF model (and why wouldn't you?), then you'll like the ensemble forecast. Latest guidance from Thursday afternoon is forecasting at least 50/50 odds of 6" across much of New England, including Rutland (see below), for the 24-hour period ending on Monday afternoon.
ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall through next Wednesday.
Next update will likely be posted on Saturday.
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