New England Daily Snow

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By Jay Cordeira, Meteorologist Posted 1 month ago February 26, 2024

Big warm up this week

Summary

Although some light snow fell overnight into Monday, the big weather story is a mid-week warm up featuring strong winds, rain, and melting snow through Wednesday. Colder weather returns for Thursday and Friday, but won't last long.

Short Term Forecast

Some light snow fell across northern New England on Sunday night bringing anywhere from a dusting to 1-2" locally at elevation. Check out the latest resort snowfall reports for Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, or recent reports from the National Weather Service

Any snow that fall will likely melt off pretty quickly on Monday as temperatures rise ahead of our next system. We are expecting high temperatures to climb above freezing below ~3000 feet almost everywhere in New England on Monday afternoon with low-elevation locations in the Hudson and Connecticut River valleys pushing into the low 50s.

 

HRRR model forecast high temperatures on Monday afternoon at 2PM. 

Most locations go even warmer on Tuesday with high temperatures in the 40s across all of New England, including locations above 4000 feet. We currently have a high temperature forecast of 47F at Killington at 3700 feet. There are decent odds that several cities in southern New England will end up with high temperatures of 60-65F on Tuesday afternoon. The dew point also creeps above 40-50F and will likely produce some fog on any snow-covered or cold-ground surfaces.

All the warmth is going to take a bite out of the snowpack, especially off trail and at lower elevations. To be fair, there isn't much (if any) to lose in many locations below ~3500-4000 feet or not at a ski resort. The warmup comes with rain likely on Tuesday night through Wednesday as a storm passes to our west. It's not looking like a washout, but upwards of 1-1.25" of rain is possible. Additional impacts also include strong winds with southerly gusts likely >50 mph ahead of the short cold front on Wednesday evening. 

 

GFS model forecast animation for 7PM Tuesday through 1AM Thursday. 

The forecast animation above from the GFS model is tempting, suggesting that there could be decent snows on the backside of the frontal passage on Wednesday evening. That's not likely going to bring much snow to the region and is a common model fallacy when dealing with precipitation typing for quick moving fronts. Nevertheless a couple inches, especially in the upslope flow behind the front, is likely across the northern Greens and Whites. We have 4-5" in our model blend, and will have to keep an eye on whether or not that holds. 

Temperatures will drop back quickly overnight into Thursday behind the front, most likely triggering phrases like "flash freeze" among the media. Anything wet on Wednesday evening will be freeze by Thursday morning (e.g., puddles, sidewalks, and trails). Expect soft conditions to turn potentially icy for any skiing or riding on Thursday. The cold doesn't last long (as you can see below) with highs expected to go back into the 40s for the weekend.

National Blend of Models (NBM) forecast of hourly temperatures and dew point temperature in Rutland, VT through March 7th.  

Extended Forecast

The extended forecast can be summarized by continued warm weather into next weekend and beyond. Much of this warmth is being driven by a long wave pattern in the atmosphere over the U.S. favoring a large ridge over the central and eastern U.S. That pattern unfortunately puts our chances for any appreciable snow over the region down near zero according to the ECMWF ensemble through 8 March. The models suggest that eventually the pattern may flip toward mid-March, but in the meantime maybe it's time to start tapping the maple trees. 

ECMWF ensemble grid for 24-hour snowfall amounts through 11 March in central Vermont at Rutland. Each grid box on the upper panel represents an individual member's 24-hour (running) snowfall total at that time. 

-Dr. Jay

Note: I am traveling on the West Coast through March 5th. I will attempt to have each DailySnow posted no later than 9AM EST.

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About Our Forecaster

Jay Cordeira

Meteorologist

Jay Cordeira is an all-around outdoor enthusiast living and working among the lakes and mountains in New England. When he’s not in the classroom teaching the next generation of meteorologists, you can find him on the trails, rivers, lakes, slabs, and backcountry of the White Mountains.

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