New Mexico Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest New Mexico Daily Snow

By Julien Ross, Forecaster Posted 3 years ago April 10, 2020

'18-19 vs '19-20 analysis ~ next snow April 12-14

Update

All New Mexico ski areas are closed for the season. New Mexico is under a public health emergency shelter in place order. You can read about the latest regulations here.

In an effort to help support COVID-19 relief efforts, OpenSnow has created a resource for local foundations that are deploying funds to directly respond to the most vulnerable members of our mountain communities. Also, doctors and nurses need personal protective equipment included GOGGLES! You can find a local hospital that needs a donation of goggles here: https://gogglesfordocs.com/

I will continue to post regular weather forecasts through April 15 for informational purposes and to provide a source for positive news. We are all in this together. Together we will get through this. And our beloved mountains will be here with us when we do.

2018-2019 vs 2019-2020 season comparisons and the short-term forecast

On track for storm April 12-14
Thursday feels almost like summer across the Land of Enchantment. Not gonna lie. I love snow but the warmth of the sun and blue skies is comforting right now. Thursday night into a Friday will be a minor transition period.

The Pacific storm we have been tracking the last two weeks was steamrolling toward New Mexico until it threw a massive pump fake, stall, and is now retrogressing back west and southwest toward Baja. And it's mocking us as it takes all of the moisture along with it. A winter storm the size of Texas moving westward from the Arizona border toward California is about as common as a New Mexican enchilada x-mas being plated with a little pile of baby kale lettuce. Pretty rare and cool sight to see.

Speaking of Texas, notice the severe thunderstorms firing up along the southeast corner of the state. Anywho, by the time our Pacific Storm finishes it's little rogue joyride around the desert southwest, it will arrive back to Nuevo Mexico moisture-starved, warm, and weakened sometime between Friday and Saturday. We could see some isolated thunderstorms and rain showers along the eastern part of the state Friday and Saturday but not expecting much action for the mountains.

Winter isn't quite over yet, however. A colder and more potent storm from the north will try to drop down into New Mexico on Monday. The loop below shows the temperatures at 10,000 ft elevation from April 9 through April 15. First, notice how our retrogressing storm is fairly cold and strong on Thursday but after a desert loop is much warmer and weaker by Saturday. Second, notice the front dropping down from the north bringing a cold air mass (light blues and pinks) into the Great Plains. This will give northern New Mexico a taste of winter Monday through Wednesday.

In terms of snow with this cold front system, models remain in disarray. Some forecasts call for double-digit storm totals for the northern mountains while others call for only a light refresh. Below are two deep snow model scenarios (Univ. of Utah and WPC precipitation).

 

And a less than impressive scenarios courtesy of the GFS.

I will check back on this storm the next couple of days to see where we stand. Either way, it looks like most of the precipitation will fall on Monday afternoon and overnight into Tuesday.

2018-2019 vs 2019-2020 season comparisons

Many New Mexico skiers and riders will never forget the 2018-2019 season and the February and March storm cycles that yielded DEEP turns, giggles and perma-grins for weeks on end. As you sit in quarantine and ponder our snowy (or snowless) existence, you might be asking how does the 2018-2019 season compare with the current 2019-2020 season? Well, let's find out!

Thanks to our telemetry SNOTEL sensor friends, I have compiled snow depth and snow-water equivalent (SWE) data for three SNOTEL sites at Taos, Santa Fe, and Sierra Blanca (Ski Apache). I chose these locations because the sensor locations are within the ski areas and provide an accurate snapshot.

Each of the three graphics below has two charts: the chart on the top is for the 2018-2019 season and the chart on the bottom is for the 2019-2020 season. The red line is snow depth. The blue line is the snow-water equivalent (SWE) which shows the amount of liquid that would be present if you melted a column of snow. Looking at the snow depth and the snow water equivalent side by side can tell us important information about the season's snowfall, the quality of the snow, and help us analyze and rate the winter season overall.

Let's start with Taos and Santa Fe. Take a look at the charts and see what observations stand out to you? I will breakdown my observations below the graphic.

Key takeaways for Taos 2018-2019 vs 2019-2020 seasons:

  • '18-19 was overall a better season than '19-20 with snow depths peaking about 30" deeper in '18-19 for both Santa Fe and Taos compared to '19-20. But it's not that simple.
  • Interestingly, the SWE totals for '19-20 compared to '18-19 were much more aligned than snow depth. Taos SWE was in the low to mid 20" for both seasons. Santa Fe had SWE in the high teens for '19-20 and around 20" for the '18-19 season.
  • How could this be given that '18-19 received so much more snow? Well, SWE is driven by the snow density, how much liquid water is in the snow. We had those crazy warm, wet storms in February and March which helped add to the SWE number but didn't as much to the total snow depth. So '18-19 not only saw more snow but it saw colder storms and fluffier powder snow (less liquid water, less SWE).
  • The '19-20 season started off stronger than '18-19 with greater snow depths on December 29, and even on January 28 the '19-20 season is in the lead or tied. Then in February and March, the '18-19 season ran away with it thanks to back to back incredible storm cycles.

Here is the season comparison for Sierra Blanca (Ski Apache).

  • Ski Apache also had a deeper snow depth in '18-19 thanks to a couple of big storms in late December and February.
  • Similar to the discussion above, Ski Apache received a lot of wet, warm storms in '19-20 and thus the SWE is comparable and even greater in '19-20 than '18-19 in spite of less snow depth overall.
  • The storm track and colder temperatures in the latter half of '19-20 favored the northern mountains and this hurt Ski Apache's snow depth. While Taos and Santa Fe peaked snow depth in March, Ski Apache peaked in late December.

I will continue to provide more "season in review" analysis in my next posts. If you have any questions or would like to see any specific data or have a take on the 2019-2020 season from a snow and storm perspective, please email me at [email protected].

Stay safe and healthy. ¡Que viva Nuevo Mexico!

JULIEN ROSS

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About Our Forecaster

Julien Ross

Forecaster

Julien was born and raised in Santa Fe, New Mexico and was introduced to skiing at age 7 through the public schools subsidized ski program at Ski Santa Fe. It was love at first turn and Julien has been chasing deep powder and good mogul lines ever since. Julien grew up fascinated by weather and studied physical geography with a focus on meteorology at Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff.

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