Here is our state of play as of Sunday morning on the water vapor satellite imagery with two storms lined up for their approach into the Four Corners region.

Storm #1 - Sunday, October 10
The first storm will pass through New Mexico on Sunday, October 10th bringing the first dose of colder air, wind, and some light high elevation snow in the northern mountains. Look for a dusting to several inches across the northern mountains above 10,000 ft. Sunday overnight will be the coldest of the season so far with freezing temperatures across the Upper Rio Grande Valley.

Storm #2 - Tuesday, October 12
Monday will be a transition day with plentiful sunshine and cool temperatures. The second storm, a much more potent and cold system than the first, will dive down into the Four Corners and then track sharply to northwest diagonally across Colorado. 

While the storm will track near New Mexico on Tuesday, the majority of the moisture available to produce precipitation and snowfall (shown in greens below) will concentrate in the northern quadrant of the storm over Wyoming.

The snow forecast through Tuesday below echoes this moisture content with only light snowfall for New Mexico. The San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado will do better given the direct Four Corners track and the San Juan's ability to make the very best out of even meager moisture content.

Here is the two-storm outlook for Taos Ski Valley showing a chance for 1-3" on Sunday and again on Tuesday.

And here is the total combined snowfall forecast through Tuesday that includes both storm #1 (Sunday) and #2 (Tuesday) with the San Juan Mountains favored for up to double-digit totals.

The biggest story for New Mexico with our back-to-back storms will be strong winds and the first major hard freeze of the season at lower elevations. Look for some mountains to test the snowmaking guns this week thanks to the cold temperatures.

We clear out after Tuesday's storm exit. Looking further out, there are signals of high pressure (calmer, warmer, drier) from October 16th to the 21st.

And from October 21st to the 26th the storm track's retreat to the Pacific Northwest could continue, meaning the second half of October will likely be uneventful. Although there is always the chance a rogue system could sneak our way.

As far as temperatures go, we should be slightly below normal in the second half of October thanks to the deep shot of cold on October 12th. Hopefully, this will allow snowmaking to start on time in northern New Mexico. Here are the projected temperature anomalies from October 15th to the 25th (blues are slightly below normal).

I will post again Monday or Tuesday morning to get a final look at the Tuesday storm forecast.

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

Santa Fe Ski Swap
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New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley, Angel Fire (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)