Before we jump into the forecast, a quick reminder that tomorrow Wednesday, December 7th at 6 pm is a fundraiser event for the Taos Avalanche Center (TAC) at Tumbleroot Brewery in Santa Fe. OpenSnow is a proud sponsor and I will be there to support TAC. Social hour starts at 6pm followed by a viewing of Spirit of the Peaks at 7pm. There is a suggested donation of $10 directly to TAC, the only avalanche center in NM and the goal is to raise money to fund future forecasts and expand forecasts to the Santa Fe area. 

Pivoting back to the forecast. On Tuesday morning, the storm we have been tracking is finally descending southward off the coast of northern California.

The placement of the storm and the counterclockwise spin will produce a steady southwest flow into Colorado and the Four Corners on Tuesday and the first part of Wednesday. The forecast pattern as such will favor the areas to the west and northwest and mostly miss the Jemez and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

By Wednesday evening the system will accelerate eastward and bring a wave of storm energy and moisture across northern New Mexico. 

I think Wednesday night into Thursday early morning will be the best chance of some light to moderate snow accumulation in the northern mountains.

I do not think this is going to be a meaningful snow producer for the Jemez or Sangres. The first phases of the storm on Tuesday and Wednesday will mostly miss to the west and north. The last phase of the storm Wednesday night will be a quick hit.

By Thursday morning, I think we could see 2-6" at Taos Ski Valley, 1-3" at Red River, and 0-3" at Angel Fire, Sipapu, Ski Santa Fe, and Pajarito. There could be a few inches of fresh snow on groomers to enjoy Thursday morning at open resorts.

Across the northern border, Wolf Creek will score double-digits with Wednesday the best day for powder and soft-on-soft conditions after several days of snow.

Thursday will clear out with very cold temperatures. Friday and Saturday will be dry with gradual warming but highs remain cool in the 20's above 10,000 feet.

I am cautiously optimistic that overnight Sunday, December 11th, and through Monday, December 12th we could see a much better storm for New Mexico. We are still 5 to 6 days out but early signals show the deepest southern storm track so far this season.

We need this December 12th storm to deliver in a big way after multiple misses and glancing blows so far in December.

Thanks for reading!

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)