Happy chilly Friday to everyone! 

Before I do a final season wrap-up post this weekend, I am happy to respond to reader-submitted questions: 1) how this season performed compared to pre-season forecasts for the triple-dip La Niña, and 2) what is the prognosis for El Niño going forward?

First, a quick glance at current conditions and the short-term forecast. Temperatures this morning in the high-elevation Sangre de Cristos were in the single digits and are still hovering in the teens as of mid-morning. 

Looking at Kachina Peak and Highline on Friday morning, the cold temperatures are doing a great job preserving our above-average snowpack. No signs of rapid melting on Kachina!

We are still crushing it for snowpack in the northern mountains as of April 21st.

The good news for snowpack, spring uphill access, and backcountry skiing and riding is that the next 10 days should bring continued below-average temperatures for the northern mountains. 

Overnight temperatures should hover around freezing above 10,000 feet through the end of April for stellar corn harvesting.

We also have a chance of some fresh snow around April 25th-26th as a storm is expected to approach the Land of Enchantment.

Cuchara will be favored for this late-April storm with a period of winds from the northeast but we could also see decent snow around the Wheeler Peak and Pecos Wilderness high country.

Triple-Dip La Niña Season Verification and Forecast

The 2022-2023 season was a triple-dip La Niña (the third season in a row of moderate La Niña conditions). 

During the course of the last three years, I posted several in-depth discussions on the nuances of La Niña for New Mexico and how portions of the northern mountains have historically performed quite well in moderate La Niñas. 

As such, the northern Sangres around Taos and Red River scored normal or just above-average snowfall during the last two seasons of moderate La Niña. You can check out those previous posts here for a La Niña/El Niño refresher course or just to geek out: January 2021, April 2021, November 2021, April 2022.

As far as the 2022-2023 season is concerned, we generally outperformed the pre-season forecasts such that the entire state did well, not just the far northern Sangres as was the case in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022.

Here was the NOAA climate prediction center forecast (left) and observed verification (right) for temperatures in the winter months (December through February). Below or near-normal temperatures are one indicator of better snowfall and snowpack.

Here was the winter season forecast (left) and observed (right) for precipitation with a large swath of the below-average prognosis in the west and southwest not verifying.

You can geek out on the NOAA discussion of the 2022-2023 winter season here.

And my OpenSnow colleague, Sam Collentine, wrote up a more in-depth discussion on how the 2022-2023 season stumped most forecasts. 

Return of El Niño?

After a strong three-year run, La Niña finally bid farewell in March 2023 and we have been in a fairly "neutral" condition the last month or so. As of the last NOAA advisory on April 13th, we are now on El Niño Watch with a 62% chance of El Niño conditions for the May–July 2023 period. You can read the full April 13th NOAA discussion here.

The term El Niño refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate phenomenon linked to periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

During El Niño, the Pacific jet stream will often dip further south across the southern tier of the United States. The southern states tend to be cooler and wetter than average, while the northern half of the U.S. becomes warmer and drier than average.

We will continue to closely monitor the El Niño forecast through summer and into fall. Based on historical records and probabilities, we are of course rooting for El Niño's return here in Nuevo México for the 2023-2024 season.

But if the 2022-2023 season proved anything, it is that the pre-season outlooks don't always verify so I try not to get my hopes up or down either way.

Most of the storms we chase for powder are a result of variable weather dynamics within a two-week timeframe that climatological forecasts simply cannot predict. 

That being said, que viva El Niño!

I will post my season recap to officially close the books on the 2022-2023 season over the weekend.

Thanks for reading!

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

Spring Avalanche Conditions from the Taos Avalanche Center

Check out the general spring avalanche conditions write-up from the Taos Avalanche Center for your backcountry excursions.

New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)